The complex calculus of apportioning CO2 emissions liability: Maguire

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LITTLETON — How to reduce global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will be a major topic at the upcoming COP27 United Nations climate summit in Egypt next week.

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As the most abundant greenhouse gas emitted through human activity, CO2 has become the chief villain in most debates on how to combat climate change and slow the pace of global warming.

Yet there are several ways to slice and dice data on CO2 emissions to help inform discussions on how to monitor, manage and mitigate global pollution trends – and determine a fair split in the responsibility for causing the climate crisis in the first place.

MAMMOTH MODERN DAY POLLUTER

If you take a country-level snapshot of CO2 discharge over the course of a single year, China routinely appears as by far the largest polluter, and in 2021 accounted for over 30% of worldwide CO2 emissions on its own.

The world’s factory floor and top goods exporter is powered mainly by high-emitting coal, and is by far the largest thermal coal producer and consumer even as Beijing aggressively pursues the world’s most ambitious renewable energy expansion drive.

China continues to add coal-fired capacity despite global pressure to reduce coal use, though Beijing has closed several outdated plants in recent years and routinely forces cuts to coal-burning activity whenever air pollution levels exceed certain thresholds.

Beijing has also pledged to reduce total coal use from 2026 as part of a plan to bring the country’s overall emissions to a peak by 2030 and become carbon neutral by 2060.

Even so, China looks set to remain the primary global polluter for decades more.

HISTORIC HEFT

If your emissions analysis takes a longer timeframe – to reflect the cumulative build in pollution over decades and the fact that CO2 lingers for centuries in the earth’s atmosphere – then the United States comes out as the largest polluter in history.

The United States is also the world’s top producer and a major exporter of crude oil and natural gas, and so has direct linkage to emissions stemming from the refining and use of those commodities by its customers.

With global demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) set to grow further from current record levels, U.S. emissions from its fossil fuel sector are likely to at least hold steady or even veer higher in coming years.

But following the recent passing of the Inflation Reduction Act, emissions from households, transport and other industry should start to trend lower and result in an overall decline in total U.S. pollution tallies.

PEOPLE POWER

Another way to parse CO2 emissions data is to rank overall emissions in terms of the amount discharged per person in the country that produced it.

This per capita ranking results in a new set of potential culprits, with sparsely populated countries that host large heavy industries such as Singapore, Qatar and Australia placing high up the list.

At a national level these countries produce only a fraction of the amount spewed out by China, the United States and elsewhere. But the per capita breakdown is helpful in highlighting that other countries also have an outsized impact on the global pollution stage.

Take Singapore, for instance. The tiny island state has a total population of less than 6 million, compared to China’s 1.4 billion.

Yet Singapore emitted 39.55 tonnes of CO2 per person in 2021, compared to China’s 7.45 tonnes per capita, thanks to Singapore being home to one of the world’s largest refining and chemical sectors, according to data from the BP Statistical Review of World Energy and the World Bank.

Similarly, Qatar, with a population of less than 3 million, produced more than 115 million tonnes of CO2 in 2021, due in large part to its mammoth natural gas and LNG export industries.

Other countries with major extractive industries, including Saudi Arabia, Turkmenistan and Canada, or with major refining installations such as Trinidad and Tobago and the Netherlands, also emit far more CO2 per person than China, which doesn’t even make it into the top 20 per capita list.

This reordering of the planet’s main polluters reveals that there are far more sources of emissions than just the usual suspects, and with vested interests that may resist pressure to alter business practices.

But policymakers who can look beyond the traditional leader boards of climate villains may also identify potential heroes who can amplify efforts to reverse pollution trends if they can be convinced to do their fair share of emissions cutting.

(Reporting By Gavin Maguire; Editing by Himani Sarkar)