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Fairlie and Simpson: Ontario should denuclearize its power generation

At about 7:25 a.m. Jan. 12, a Provincial Emergency Operations Centre alert, sent to most cellphones in the province, stated an "incident" was reported at the Pickering Nuclear Generating Station, but there was no abnormal release of radioactivity from the station, and emergency staff were responding.

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At about 7:25 a.m.Jan. 12, a Provincial Emergency Operations Centre alert, sent to most cellphones in the province, stated an “incident” was reported at the Pickering Nuclear Generating Station, but there was no abnormal release of radioactivity from the station, and emergency staff were responding.

The alert said people near the station in Durham Region east of Toronto would not need to take any protective actions, but should remain tuned to local media for further instruction.

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Ontario Power Generation, which oversees the Pickering plant, sent a tweet 40 minutes after the alert was sent to cellphones, radios and TVs across the province, saying it was a mistake.

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Solicitor General Sylvia Jones, who oversees the Provincial Emergency Operations Centre, said a routine training exercise was underway when the alert was sent in error.

Pickering’s mayor immediately demanded a full investigation, and the Ontario government is promising to ensure this never happens again. But the wake-up call alerts us to the radiological hazards of the nuclear power generating stations operated by Ontario Power Generation (OPG).

By Tuesday, the Prepare to be Safe website (preparetobesafe.ca) was inundated with more than 30,000 orders for potassium iodide (KI) pills, OPG spokesperson Neal Kelly said. Emergency awareness kits were sent in 2017 to residents and businesses within a 10-kilometre radius of the Pickering and Darlington stations, but anyone within 50 kilometres of the province’s nuclear facilities can order free KI pills online.

In an earlier report, Ian Fairlie, an international expert on internal radiation, assessed the effects of a nuclear disaster at Pickering of the scale experienced with the Level 7 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in Okuma, Japan in 2011.  He estimated the radiation impact would cause an estimated 26,000 cancer cases, nearly half of them fatal. Thousands of residents would lose their homes, with evacuation and no-entry periods ranging from 30 to more than 100 years. The economic losses of these uninsured housing losses would exceed $125 billion.

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According to Fairlie’s report, published by the Ontario Clean Air Alliance in March 2018, if Ontario had to evacuate a 50-kilometre radius around Pickering or Darlington, all the residents of Toronto, as well as Ajax, Aurora, Mississauga, Newmarket, Oshawa, Pickering, Vaughan, and Whitby would have to leave their homes for up to a century.

Based on computer software using assumptions based on the Cernobyl disaster in the Soviet Union in 1986 and at Fukushima , such a catastrophe is difficult to comprehend, but the consequences would be so severe we need to rethink our reliance on nuclear power in Ontario.

The nuclear meltdown at the Fukushima nuclear station in Japan happened in the midst of a tsunami and earthquake, however Japan’s parliament declared in 2012 it was a human-caused disaster. As the report emphasizes, it would not take the precise circumstances of the Japanese disaster to result in a similar catastrophe here.

Pickering is the third-oldest nuclear station in North America, surrounded by 2.2 million people within 30 kilometres, more than any other nuclear plant on the continent. The plant’s six CANDU reactors generate 14 per cent of the province’s electricity, Ontario Power Generation says.

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Reliant on outdated technology, Pickering was scheduled to be decommissioned this year. But the former Liberal government and the current Progressive Conservative government in Ontario committed to keeping it open until 2024. Premier Ford is said to be pushing for operations to continue there beyond 2024.

The aging Pickering and Darlington reactors also are vulnerable to a plane crash or a cyberattack. SNC Lavalin, the principal firm responsible for the refurbishment of Ontario’s reactors, was the victim of a cyberattack in September 2019 that targeted former and current employees, according to a Jan. 7 news report from CityNews Montreal.

As many experts, including Fairlie, emphasize, the most likely possibility of a nuclear catastrophe is human error, the No. 1 cause of nuclear accidents.

All forms of power generation have benefits and risks and can exert an environmental impact. Risk acceptance depends on a variety of social and cultural norms, but any intention to renew and expand Ontario’s nuclear infrastructure must be carefully reassessed and placed on standby.

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Instead, it would be cheaper and wiser to purchase more hydro electricity from Quebec; Premier Francois Legault has offered water power at half the price from Pickering. Rather than supply New York state with cheap hydro electricity from Niagara Falls, due to the glut from Pickering and Darlington, Ontario could jump start research and development on sustainable renewables, such as thermal, solar, wind and water power.

Ian Fairlie is a retired UK-based consultant on the radiological hazards of nuclear fuel and the risks arising from radioactive releases.  Erika Simpson is an associate professor of international politics at Western University.

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