The draw for this year’s World Cup in Qatar takes place today. There will be 32 spots to be decided and all the qualified nations will find out who they will face at the group stage.
However, there are limitations, seedings and other issues to handle, plus the omnipresent threat of a “group of death”.
The Athletic has taken a look at the qualifiers, the likely pots and which teams your nation will want to avoid when the draw takes place.
How will the draw work?
There are four pots for the draw on Friday. They are based on the FIFA world rankings. However, Qatar are guaranteed to be in pot one as they are the hosts, which itself has raised many concerns.
They will also be drawn into Group A.
The other teams in the first pot will be the other seven highest-ranked sides. Pot two will include the next eight highest-ranked sides, with pot three including the next eight after that.
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However, pot four is interesting. There will be five places in there defined by rank. Two of the other three will be used as a placeholder for the intercontinental play-offs. The last spot will go to the winner of the play-off between Wales and either Scotland or Ukraine, whose semi-final has been delayed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
There is also a geographical restriction on each group. Each continent can only have one representative per group, aside from Europe, which can have two as it supplies 13 of the 32 competitors.
Who will be in each pot?
- Pot 1: Qatar, Brazil, Belgium, France, Argentina, England, Spain, Portugal
- Pot 2: Mexico, Netherlands, Denmark, Germany, Uruguay, Switzerland, USA, Croatia
- Pot 3: Senegal, Iran, Japan, Morocco, Serbia, Poland, South Korea, Tunisia
- Pot 4: Cameroon, Canada, Ecuador, Saudi Arabia, Ghana, Wales/Scotland/Ukraine, Peru/Australia/UAE, Costa Rica/New Zealand
The contenders
Starting with the world champions, France should be confident once again as their pool of talent knows no bounds. Didier Deschamps’ men breezed through the European qualifiers, topping the group with 18 points following five wins, three draws and no losses.
It is worth noting that France were one of — if not the — favourites for last summer’s Euro 2020, but went out on penalties to Switzerland in the round of 16 with just one win in the tournament after being drawn in the “group of death” that featured Germany and Portugal.
There seems to be more harmony at the moment and any side with Kylian Mbappe has to be among the favourites.
Five-time winners Brazil will always be strong contenders and their qualifying has been convincing — topping the South American qualification group with 45 points from 17 games. Tite’s men did not lose any matches and scored 40 goals, which is comfortably higher than any other South American side (the next highest were Argentina and Ecuador with 27).
Neymar led the way in qualifying with the most goal involvements — 16 across the 17 games that Brazil played. A simple look through their squad is frightening, and that is unlikely to change by November.
Copa America champions Argentina should be going into the tournament with confidence they can earn a third World Cup. Their second-place finish in qualifying meant their spot in the finals was never in doubt, but their recent Copa America triumph will no doubt break down a psychological barrier.
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Lionel Messi is the biggest name, but with Angel Di Maria, Paolo Dybala, Rodrigo De Paul and Lautaro Martinez all likely to be in the squad, they have plenty of match-winners.
Spain surprised people during Euro 2020. They were not given a big chance of winning the tournament but arguably outplayed eventual winners Italy in their semi-final, only to lose on penalties.
They are not the force they were when they won back-to-back European Championship titles around a World Cup win in 2010. However, they have a strong squad and in Luis Enrique they have arguably the best manager in the competition. Buoyed by the new influx of talent — namely Barcelona’s Pedri — Spain will be in a stronger position to give this one a good go.
Following a couple of lean decades, recent tournament performances suggest England should be among the contenders. A fourth-place finish at the 2018 World Cup was followed by runner-up medals at Euro 2020.
Gareth Southgate’s men topped their qualifying group at a canter with eight wins and two draws. England’s core squad of players have become used to going deep in tournaments, and they will want to ensure that continues in Qatar.
Germany have fallen off slightly in recent years after a disappointing Euro 2020 and will be placed in Pot B of the draw — but write them off at your peril. With Hansi Flick leading them, this is likely to be a new version of Germany. They finished top of their qualifying group with nine wins from 10 games.
Their defence can still be vulnerable but the attacking flair they have cannot be discounted. Can the prodigiously talented 19-year-old Jamal Musiala step up on the world stage?
The outsiders
Don’t be fooled by their presence in this section — Belgium are one of the favourites. They were first in the world rankings until yesterday and in Pot A for the draw.
However, the feeling is that they are simply not the same force that they once were and may now go down as the nation’s underachievers, given the “golden generation” they had in recent years. They made it to the semi-finals of the last World Cup before losing to France, and lost to another eventual winner, Italy, at the Euros.
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Netherlands did not make it to the last World Cup but they topped their qualifying group this time around, beating off competition from Turkey and Norway.
The Dutch got as far as the round of 16 during the Euros before losing to the Czech Republic in a game that was affected by a Matthijs de Ligt red card. This time, the Netherlands will be able to call upon Virgil van Dijk — the 30-year-old had to miss out last summer through injury. If things click perfectly, Louis van Gaal’s side could mount a strong challenge similar to their run to the World Cup final in 2010.
Uruguay finished third in their South American qualifying group, which is reflective of their status — strong but behind Argentina and Brazil.
Going into the World Cup, they will have an ageing (or experienced, depending on how you look at it) core group of players. In their most recent game, which secured qualification, they played a 35-year-old Edinson Cavani, a 36-year-old Diego Godin and a 35-year-old Luis Suarez.
That being said, there is plenty of strength beyond the veterans — 22-year-old Benfica striker Darwin Nunez, Real Madrid’s Fede Valverde and Tottenham Hotspur’s Rodrigo Bentancur show they have emerging stars.
Portugal secured their place at the World Cup this week with a play-off win against North Macedonia. That wobble was the main reason for ranking them as outsiders, but they undoubtedly have a strong team.
A squad that includes Bernardo Silva, Bruno Fernandes, Joao Felix, Diogo Jota and Cristiano Ronaldo is always going to pose a threat. Winners of Euro 2016, those players have the talent to win Portugal’s first World Cup.
Similarly, Senegal booked their place this week at the expense of Egypt, making it a joyous few months for Aliou Cisse and his team. It was yet another penalty shootout, but they got the job done in the same fashion that crowned them Africa Cup of Nations champions in February.
Cisse will want to carry this momentum into the World Cup in November to ensure Senegal pose a real threat. This squad knows what it means to win a major international tournament.
The dark horses
Denmark topped their group with 27 points, the most in the continent. Many might have suggested their run to the semi-finals of Euro 2020 was down to the bond and togetherness they carried from the dreadful scenes surrounding Christian Eriksen during their first group game, but that would do them a disservice. Denmark are a strong side who will pose any international team a problem.
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Croatia topped their qualifying group to make it to Qatar, and the fact they are in Pot B of the draw does seem fair, given their overall strength. The World Cup finalists in 2018 are not a nation to underestimate, but with key men like Luka Modric, Ivan Perisic and Andrej Kramaric and Marcelo Brozovic all 30 or older by the time the tournament starts, the squad is ageing and unlikely to repeat their feat from Russia.
Canada were the first nation from the CONCACAF region to qualify for Qatar, ahead of Mexico and the United States. It is their first World Cup in 36 years.
They have Bayern Munich’s Alphonso Davies and Lille’s Jonathan David — if Canada are going to surprise any teams it is likely to be that pair who will be central to their success. Besiktas’ Cyle Larin, whose 13 goals was the highest return in the CONCACAF qualifiers, is also one to watch. Look out for Canada.
North America’s traditional powerhouse, Mexico, salvaged a second-place finish in CONCACAF with a win in their final match against El Salvador but they struggled through much of the qualifying campaign. Manager Tata Martino has taken most of the blame, but aside from a few bright spots, like Hirving Lozano at Napoli and Wolves’ Raul Jimenez, this squad does not have many players competing at the top of the world game, and the pipeline from Liga MX to Europe seems to have slowed to a trickle as scouts raid MLS academies instead. On paper, El Tri are still a dangerous match-up, but with just one win against a top-35 team — based on Elo ratings — since 2019, they could be a paper tiger.
The United States had a slightly underwhelming qualifying campaign for a country with the world’s 15th-best Elo rating, finishing behind Canada and Mexico in CONCACAF and waiting until the final match day to officially secure a spot after missing out in 2018.
Still, when this squad is fully fit, it is full of bright young stars at some of the world’s biggest clubs: not just Christian Pulisic at Chelsea but Sergino Dest at Barcelona, Giovanni Reyna at Borussia Dortmund, Weston McKennie at Juventus, Tim Weah at Lille, Tyler Adams at RB Leipzig, and Yunus Musah at Valencia.
They had CONCACAF’s best expected goals (xG) record for and against in the last round of qualifying, and there is a sense that if the US can just find a striker to put the ball in the net — Dallas’ Jesus Ferreira emerged late in qualifying as an xG and expected assists (xA) monster — this hard-pressing, passing team could go toe-to-toe with the heavyweights.
Switzerland know they are highly unlikely to win the tournament, but they are no pushovers. They qualified for the World Cup at the top of the pile with 18 points, ahead of Italy in a tightly contested group. A quarter-final loss to Spain stopped them from going any further in Euro 2020, but they knocked out France first. They have it in them to frustrate opponents.
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It is worth noting that Cameroon came third place in this year’s AFCON and are not to be underestimated. They are unlikely to win it, but have a shock in them. They finished top of their group in the African qualifiers with 15 points, setting up a two-legged tie with Algeria in the play-offs. A closely fought game meant that Cameroon won on away goals thanks to a last-minute goal from Karl Toko Ekambi. Their spirit and togetherness are strong.
Morocco were more convincing in their play-off after thrashing DR Congo 5-2 on aggregate. In truth, this is unsurprising given the quality they have in their team with exciting players such as Paris Saint-Germain’s Achraf Hakimi, Barcelona’s Abde Ezzalzouli, and Sevilla’s Youssef En-Nesyri in their ranks.
Likewise, Serbia have strong individuals, especially going forward. With players like Aleksandar Mitrovic, Dusan Vlahovic, Luka Jovic and Dusan Tadic, there can be plenty to offer in attack. Serbia finished their qualifying group with 20 points, which was enough to see them beat Portugal to top spot. That says everything you need to know about their credentials to compete.
The unlikely lads
Host nation Qatar will be top of the bill at the draw but on the pitch, we have to be realistic. They are ranked 52nd on FIFA’s list and the likelihood that they will pose a genuine challenge is, unfortunately for them, low.
Poland will always have a chance to win any match as long as they have Robert Lewandowski in their side but the reality is that they are not likely to compete. Their 2-0 victory over Sweden in the play-offs saw them through, but their previous experience in 2018 saw them finish bottom of a group containing Colombia, Japan and Senegal.
Ecuador must be pleased with their qualifying campaign after finishing fourth in South American qualifying. They are 44th in the FIFA rankings and little is expected of them.
Ghana qualified for the World Cup by defeating Nigeria on away goals this week, thanks to Thomas Partey’s strike. This is the fourth time the Black Stars have qualified and they will be hoping their run is similar to 2010 when they reached the quarter-finals.
They join Tunisia, whose tight 1-0 aggregate win over Mali saw them scrape through. That makes it back-to-back World Cup qualifications after not qualifying for the previous two tournaments.
On paper, Iran are a strong international side — they are 21st in the FIFA rankings and finished ahead of South Korea in the third round of qualifying. Both teams were head and shoulders above the rest in their group. For Iran, they are breaking new ground having qualified for the third time on the trot.
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Japan secured their place with a victory over Australia last week. They finished behind Saudi Arabia in their group to make up the countries guaranteed to represent the Asian confederation. Japan are 23rd in FIFA’s rankings, well above Saudi Arabia in 53rd. How they will fare when the tournament begins may change those rankings.
Additional contributor: John Muller
For information on the Round of 16 schedule, start times and stadiums, head to our World Cup 2022 bracket page.
(Top photo: Franck Fife/AFP via Getty Images)