​​LeBrun: The NHL’s most intriguing restricted free agents, from Caufield to Dubois to Zegras

MONTREAL, QC - SEPTEMBER 29: Winnipeg Jets forward Pierre-Luc Dubois (80) plays the puck against Montreal Canadiens right wing Cole Caufield (22) during the Winnipeg Jets versus the Montreal Canadiens preseason game on September 29, 2022, at Bell Centre in Montreal, QC (Photo by David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
By Pierre LeBrun
Dec 2, 2022

Roope Hintz’s contract extension caught some people off guard this week, as far as its timing, but it also came as a reminder that for pending restricted free agents, the timeline for getting a deal done is not nearly as obvious as for unrestricted free agents.

There’s less urgency in getting RFAs signed ahead of time because of the simple fact that those players aren’t walking into the market like UFAs can. Technically speaking, RFAs eligible for offer sheets can talk to other teams, but we know how rarely one of those materializes.

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RFAs who are one year away from UFA status can force a trade, as we saw this past summer with Matthew Tkachuk. More on that later, because we might have an RFA or two going down that path this summer.

In any case, it’s always interesting to see a pending RFA get a deal done ahead of time. Both Stars general manager Jim Nill and Hintz’s agent, Markus Lehto, said the deal — eight years with an $8.45 million average annual value — got done rather quickly, which is important, to avoid any lingering in-season talks weighing on Hintz’s mind. That’s why so many teams and agents agree to wait on RFAs until after the season. Or extend one year out.

Hintz’s contract also signals that the NHL is perhaps leaving behind its pandemic, flat-cap marketplace and entering better times with the promise of a salary cap that’s going to jump up meaningfully either this summer or next.

The Stars are clearly betting on an improving economic NHL environment and trying to get ahead of what might have been a more expensive proposition a year and a half from now, when Hintz would have had UFA-eligible leverage on his side.

Will the contract impact other negotiations to come over the next several months? Which ones might already be in motion?

Let’s check in on some of the most intriguing pending RFA situations.

(Note: The contract projections below are from last offseason, via Evolving-Hockey, to provide a ballpark of what the numbers might have been heading into the 2022-23 season. Statistics are from 2022-23.)


Jesper Bratt, Devils

  • Evolving-Hockey’s last contract projection from before the 2022-23 season: Four years, $5.612 million AAV
  • 2022-23 stats: nine goals, 27 points, plus-12 and 17:11 ATOI in 24 games

The Devils punted the ball a year down the line after signing the very talented winger to a one-year, $5.45 million deal in August, avoiding a scheduled arbitration hearing. There were talks last summer about a long-term deal, but the two sides couldn’t bridge the gap.

My sense of the situation is this: The Devils are building around Jack Hughes ($8 million AAV) and Nico Hischier ($7.25 million AAV) down the middle, and while they very much want Bratt to be part of that forward core long-term, I don’t think they can see paying him more than Hughes. I could be wrong about that, but that’s my sense. So it’s going to be rather interesting to see where this goes. Devils GM Tom Fitzgerald is trying to build, from the ground up, a Bruins-like culture where players sacrifice a bit on the cap in order to build as deep a contender as possible over time — a team that can take swings at it year after year, not just for a short window. Easier said than done, of course.

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The Devils absolutely want Bratt to stay long-term, but at this point, it’s clearly at a number that’s different than what his two agents have in mind. And to be fair, Hughes and Hischier signed their extensions out of their entry-level deals while Bratt is headed into contract No. 4, which carries more leverage. You can see why Bratt’s camp would feel justified to ask for north of $8 million as an AAV.

I reached out to agent Rick Komarow, who declined to comment. To be fair, that’s standard for him. He rarely comments on his clients’ contractual situations. But this much is a fact: Bratt has arbitration rights this summer and is one year away from UFA eligibility. So this is probably the summer when it needs to be figured out, one way or another. I can’t imagine New Jersey walking him right to UFA in 2024 with another one-year deal this summer. It’s a multiyear deal in New Jersey, or it’s a trade.

Timo Meier, Sharks

  • Evolving-Hockey’s last contract projection from before the 2022-23 season: Eight years, $8.208 million AAV
  • 2022-23 stats: 12 goals, 23 points, minus-3 and 20:00 ATOI in 26 games

We reported earlier this season that Sharks GM Mike Grier has let his GM colleagues around the NHL know that he’s listening on pretty much any player on his roster not named Tomas Hertl as he continues to retool the Sharks roster following the offseason trade of Brent Burns. Nothing has happened to change that thinking. So, yes, the Sharks would listen on the very talented Meier, 26, who is an RFA on July 1, has salary arbitration rights and is one year away from UFA eligibility.

Now, Meier is an RFA on July 1 with quite the kicker: a $10 million qualifying offer. Tip of the hat to Meier’s agent Claude Lemieux on that one when negotiating the four-year, $24-million deal back in 2019. But then again, Meier is probably a $9 million-plus player by now, given his production — coming off a career-high 35 goals last season and on pace for another 35-plus season in 2022-23.

So what’s the play here if you’re San Jose? Probably depends on what is offered closer to March 3. It could also be an offseason trade as long as the acquiring team gets him signed long-term as part of the deal, which would solidify San Jose’s return. Or, of course, maybe Meier fits the Sharks’ long-term vision and they sign him themselves.

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Grier did chat with Lemieux last summer after taking over as GM and asked if Meier would be open to sticking around for the long haul. The answer was yes, but of course, the next question would be: At what price?

“We’re open-minded, we’re realistic, and we’re waiting for an offer whenever it’s going to come,” Lemieux said this week.

I could be wrong, but I don’t think the Sharks sign Meier. I think this is more likely headed to a trade at some point, given the assets San Jose could net to help along its retool/rebuild.

Pierre-Luc Dubois, Jets

  • Evolving-Hockey’s last contract projection from before the 2022-23 season: four years, $5.965 million AAV
  • 2022-23 stats: 10 goals, 20 points, minus-5 and 18:03 ATOI in 21 games

The cat came out of the bag last summer that Dubois was unlikely to sign a long-term deal with the Jets. He’s an RFA on July 1, with salary arbitration rights, one year away from UFA status in 2024. It’s similar to where Tkachuk was last summer with Calgary when he informed the Flames he wasn’t going to sign long-term, forcing the team’s hand in what ended up being a sign-and-trade to Florida.

The Jets are off to a fantastic start to the season, and Dubois is playing well, so it’s no surprise when I contacted his agent, Pat Brisson, this week he offered no comment nor any update. It’s not time to rock the boat from Brisson’s perspective. They’ll deal with all this after the season. I mean, if the Jets implode and slide out of a playoff spot, maybe Dubois is a March 3 trade bait, but as long as the Jets remain playoff contenders, this is a file that will await offseason attention.

And who knows: Maybe after a fun season under new coach Rick Bowness, the Jets can convince Dubois to stay on long-term. Either way, that next contract for Dubois figures to be a career-defining one. He’s having a good season and controls his future in many ways this summer. The Habs have shown interest already. They would be among the teams that take a swing at him if he’s available.

Troy Terry, Ducks

  • Evolving-Hockey’s last contract projection from before the 2022-23 season: four years, $5.552 million AAV
  • 2022-23 stats: 10 goals, 24 points, minus-5 and 19:52 ATOI in 24 games

The 25-year-old forward is proving that his breakout 37-goal 2021-22 season was no fluke, putting up a point per game so far this season. Terry signed a three-year bridge deal in July 2020 at a very reasonable $1.45 million AAV. Ducks GM Pat Verbeek has indicated that he’d prefer to wait until after this season to start negotiations.

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“It’s not appropriate to comment on Troy’s contract status at this point,” Terry’s agent, Kurt Overhardt, said this week. “Troy is focused on building his game and helping the Ducks have success for the remainder of the season.”

So the agent didn’t want to say much, but here’s what I would say: Terry has salary arbitration rights, and I believe the longer this negotiation waits, the better it is for him. He’s just further building his case with his numbers. Honestly, if I were Verbeek, I might pick up the phone in the New Year, perhaps earlier than I wanted, and get the ball rolling. Because the contract Overhardt is going to push for gets bigger with each passing month and each Terry point.

Alex DeBrincat, Senators

  • Evolving-Hockey’s last contract projection from before the 2022-23 season: five years, $8.244 million AAV
  • 2022-23 stats: six goals, 17 points, minus-7 and 19:11 ATOI in 22 games

The sense at training camp was that DeBrincat’s camp, led by agent Jeff Jackson, and Sens GM Pierre Dorion had agreed they would let the newly acquired DeBrincat get a feel for his surroundings over a few months before circling back and chatting. That’s still where things stand.

“Status quo,” Jackson said via text message this week. “Pierre and I have had general chats but nothing you would consider negotiations.”

DeBrincat’s $9 million qualifying offer is a rather important factor in how this plays out. I’m assuming the Senators would like to sign him to a multiyear deal with a lower number than $9 million as the AAV. But the player has a lot of leverage here. He’s one year away from UFA status in July 2024.

For the Senators it’s rather simple: sign him to a multiyear contract or trade him. The least desirable option is a one-year, $9 million contract bridging him to the July 2024 UFA market.

Cole Caufield, Canadiens

  • Evolving-Hockey’s last contract projection from before the 2022-23 season: two years, $2.871 million AAV
  • 2022-23 stats: 13 goals, 22 points, minus-4 and 18:05 ATOI in 23 games

The Habs have gotten the ball rolling on this one, but it’s very early in the process.

“Jeff Gorton came out a few weeks ago saying that we’re having conversations, and, yes, we’ve started to have some conversations, and it’s very preliminary,” Caufield’s agent, Brisson, said this week. “There’s no timeline as far as we’re concerned. I spoke to (GM) Kent Hughes the other day. We’ll see how it goes. We’re having conversations about doing an extension.”

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The Canadiens will have cap room this offseason. As to what kind of second contract they have in mind for Caufield — whether they want it to be a bridge deal or longer-term — my sense is they have entered this negotiation willing to be flexible and do whatever ends up being the best combination of cap hit and term. Brisson is open-minded as well.

Trevor Zegras, Ducks

  • Evolving-Hockey’s last contract projection from before the 2022-23 season: seven years, $6.878 million AAV
  • 2022-23 stats: eight goals, 20 points, minus-6 and 19:47 ATOI in 24 games

Zegras is in the same boat as his teammate Terry as far as the GM, Verbeek, wanting to wait until after the season to get going on his next deal. Which is common. And absolutely fine with Zegras’ agent, Brisson. In fact, Brisson saw Verbeek last Sunday, and while they chatted, the contract didn’t come up.

“Since he came out publicly that he wants to wait until the end of the year, we didn’t talk contract, and I’m good with it,” Brisson said. “I’m fine either way.”

Verbeek, as a first-time GM, hasn’t shown his leaning yet when it comes to re-signing young stars coming out of entry-level. Will he want to go bridge or max term? Zegras is a franchise player. I’d be going max eight years with a number you can live with, knowing the cap is going up as will his offensive production most likely. The long-term second contracts signed by Jack Hughes in New Jersey and Nick Suzuki in Montreal already look rather reasonable and will be seen as bargains within a few years. I wouldn’t bridge Zegras.

Matt Boldy, Wild

  • Evolving-Hockey’s last contract projection from before the 2022-23 season: two years, $3.465 million AAV
  • 2022-23 stats: nine goals, 17 points, plus-2 and 18:49 ATOI in 22 games

What an entrance to the NHL Boldy made last season, with 15 goals and 39 points in 47 games. It’s been a little slower in Year 2, including an eight-game scoreless drought, but he’d been heating up lately. He comes out of his entry-level deal July 1. The Wild did approach Boldy’s camp as early as last summer about his second contract.

“We had some very high-level conversations over the summer but haven’t jumped back into them since the season started,” Boldy’s agent, Brian Bartlett, said via text message this week.

Sounds like things are in a holding pattern, which makes sense. I don’t see any reason for either side to want to rush.

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On the surface, given the Wild’s cap situation, it seems more likely we’re looking at a bridge deal, but I also know the Wild aren’t opposed to a longer-term deal if the number is right.

Dylan Cozens, Sabres

  • Evolving-Hockey’s last contract projection from before the 2022-23 season: two years, $2.544 million AAV
  • 2022-23 stats: nine goals, 21 points, plus-2 and 17:01 ATOI in 24 games

The 21-year-old forward is in the last year of his entry-level deal. The Sabres have been aggressive in trying to lock up some young core pieces. Is Cozens next? There have been preliminary discussions, but that’s it so far.

Where his next deal goes will be interesting. He’s not a huge offensive star, but he gets a lot done elsewhere.

“He’s off to a great start, showing his versatility offensively, defensively and in the (faceoff) circle,” Cozens’ agent, Allain Roy, said via text message this week. “Plays all situations and is a perfect example of how certain players need to be paid above point production while bringing value in all areas, including leadership. They should be excited for his future as he will only get better. We are in a new age where teams seem done paying for past performance and inherent value is now calculated by current and near future performance and potential.”

Bowen Byram, Colorado Avalanche

  • Evolving-Hockey’s last contract projection from before the 2022-23 season: two years, $2.313 million AAV
  • 2022-23 stats: two goals, five points, plus-3 and 20:47 ATOI in 10 games

My understanding is that this summer after winning the Cup, the Avs did have some dialogue with Byram’s camp, led by agent Kevin Epp, about the next contract but those conversations were conceptual in nature and not about exchanging hard numbers. So it would appear it will wait until after the season.

Which gives Byram a chance to impress in the interim.

From our Avs beat writer Peter Baugh this week:

“Before (Cale) Makar got going, there was a stretch early in the season when Byram was playing better than any Avalanche defenseman. Unfortunately for the young blueliner, he suffered a lower-body injury and has played in only half of the team’s games. He’s skating with skills coach Shawn Allard this week and ramping up for a return.”

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Injuries have been part of the story so far in the early part of Byram’s career, but when he’s healthy, as we saw in the playoffs last year, just wow.

I would be aiming for a bridge deal if I were Byram, and I would bet that’s what Epp tries to do: let the numbers pile up the next two or three years, then cash in. Which is why the Avs might be wise to try to lock him in longer at a good number.

K’Andre Miller and Alexis Lafrenière, Rangers

  • Evolving-Hockey’s last contract projection for Miller from before the 2022-23 season: six years, $4.943 million AAV
  • Miller 2022-23 stats: zero goals, eight points, minus-5 and 21:55 ATOI in 24 games
  • Evolving-Hockey’s last contract projection for Lafrenière from before the 2022-23 season: two years, $2.370 million AAV
  • Lafrenière’s 2022-23 stats: three goals, 10 points, even rating and 15:41 ATOI in 24 games

My understanding is that the Rangers brass did throw around some numbers with camps for both players in August and September, but ultimately it sounds like each player’s camp wanted to wait. And that probably makes sense for two youngsters who need to build up their numbers this season — show they can deliver — to gain leverage for the offseason.

Miller is second in Rangers ice time this season, behind only Adam Fox, and is playing well overall, continuing to develop nicely as a reliable top-four presence. But I’m sure he and his agent, Ian Pulver, are hoping for a few more points, and without any real power-play time, that’s not easy to achieve.

Lafrenière had a strong second half in 2021-22, but so far this season the offensive numbers have yet to pile up. We’re still waiting for that big, consistent offensive jump from the first pick in the 2020 NHL Draft. A bridge deal makes the most sense here for Lafrenière. He should bet on himself. It’ll come.

Evan Bouchard, Oilers

  • Evolving-Hockey’s last contract projection from before the 2022-23 season: eight years, $6.140 million AAV
  • 2022-23 stats: three goals, 11 points, minus-11 and 18:42 ATOI in 24 games

There haven’t been any discussions whatsoever on the contract front between the Oilers and the young blueliner’s camp, led by agents Jeff Jackson and Dave Gagner, Jackson said via text message this week.

And that makes sense because I think both sides probably want to see how he fares given a bigger opportunity this season. Despite a booming a shot, he still doesn’t get much power-play time with Tyson Barrie standing in the way, and he is still a work in progress defensively. But overall, after a tough start to the season, he seems to be turning a corner.

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If I were the agents here, I would go short-term on the next deal, thinking the body of work will grow and lead to a better deal in a few years.

Vince Dunn, Kraken

  • Evolving-Hockey’s last contract projection from before the 2022-23 season: four years, $4.421 million AAV
  • 2022-23 stats: four goals, 16 points, plus-9 and 23:18 ATOI in 23 games

On pace to put up career highs in points and second on the team in ice time, north of 23 minutes per night, Dunn has taken advantage of the chance to carve out a premium role with the expansion Kraken. There appears to be no rush on getting going on his next contract.

“There have been no discussions,” his agent, Pat Morris, said via text message this week.

Dunn has salary arbitration rights this summer and is UFA-eligible in July 2024.

Mikey Anderson, Kings

  • Evolving-Hockey’s last contract projection from before the 2022-23 season: two years, $2.213 million AAV
  • 2022-23 stats: one goal, five points and 21:42 ATOI in 26 games

Second on the Kings in ice time per game behind only Drew Doughty, who also happens to be the player he’s most often paired with, the under-the-radar Anderson isn’t flashy but is a steady player who can make the smart play. His agent doesn’t need to wait until after the season to chat with the Kings about the next contract.

“It is something we plan on further discussing with (the Kings) starting after the halfway point,” Anderson’s agent, Jay Grossman, said via text message this week.

(Top photo of Cole Caufield and Pierre-Luc Dubois: David Kirouac / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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Pierre LeBrun

Pierre LeBrun has been a senior NHL columnist for The Athletic since 2017. He has been an NHL Insider for TSN since 2011 following six years as a panelist on Hockey Night In Canada. He also appears regularly on RDS in Montreal. Pierre previously covered the NHL for ESPN.com and The Canadian Press. Follow Pierre on Twitter @PierreVLeBrun