2023 NBA Draft Top 100 Big Board: Wembanyama No. 1; Whitmore in top 5; players to watch in tourney

With March Madness heating up and the regular season coming to a close, it’s time to update my 2023 NBA Draft Big Board of the top 100 prospects in the class. This is still a moving target as I get eyes on players throughout March Madness and review tape throughout the course of the collegiate and international seasons. But we have enough information to at least rank players and put them into relative ranges.

Right now, I would tier this draft class pretty simply. The top two are locked into place as Tier 1 guys. The next group is a larger one from No. 3 all the way to No. 10 or 11. I see those players as likely lottery picks (or in the case of guys like Brandon Miller or the Thompson twins, potentially much higher). The next group is a bit more open, going from No. 12 down to No. 20. I see these players as likely first-round picks. The next group, from No. 21 down to No. 36 or so, is a bit more all over the map for teams. Some teams really like Duke’s Kyle Filipowski’s movement skills at 6-foot-11 and really respect his ability to handle the ball. Others are concerned about his shooting and lack of rim protection for what could be the center role. G League Ignite’s Leonard Miller has a terrific frame, intriguing movement skills and great touch, but some scouts worry about his feel. Largely, these are imperfect prospects whose draft range is a bit wider than you’d think.

Another part of the equation worth considering is the strength of this class in comparison to 2024. The 2024 class is expected to be one of the weakest in recent memory for scouts, from the top all the way through the lottery. The 2023 draft is seen as a strong class through the lottery and into the teens but tapers off and has a lot of questions due to the lack of emergence from upperclassmen. It creates an interesting conundrum for players on the precipice of the first round: Do you try your luck in this draft, or do you return and try to go in what looks to be a wide-open lottery next year?

I would expect to see a large number of players declare for the draft and test their stock to find out what NBA teams actually think of them. If they don’t receive the draft assurances they’re looking for, we could end up in a situation in which we get a few surprise returnees to college basketball next season. The specter of that weak 2024 NBA Draft is something agents are parsing through in terms of information when trying to advise their clients.

With that being said, here’s where my top 100 stands right now:

Some quick notes

• As much as anything, I’m trying to project some ins and outs here. We’ll get that information officially soon, and I’ll update this when it comes out. But there is certainly a matter of guesswork at this stage. For instance, Florida freshman wing Riley Kugel would undeniably feature highly, but he said at a news conference last weekend that he doesn’t “have any ideas of leaving this team any time soon like transfer portal or anything like that.” Connecticut center Donovan Clingan’s high school coach was reported as saying a couple of weeks ago that, “he knows he needs more time.” Senegalese wing Thierry Darlan could still theoretically declare for this draft, but he has committed to G League Ignite for next season. I’m really interested in 6-foot-10 wing Bobi Klintman at Wake Forest long term, but he’s just emerging and would probably be better served to take the upside swing at staying and trying his luck in 2024. There are countless other examples of freshmen in whom I have some interest but find it relatively unlikely based on media comments or the rawness of their overall games that they’ll be in this draft. If you don’t see a player like that here, that’s why.
• This board does not take team fit into account. Boston’s board will look different than Phoenix’s, and they look for different skills than the Heat do. What this board tries to do is take the general direction of the NBA and slot in players I think will play a role at the next level in the largest variety of situations. With the way the NBA is going, wings tend to end up higher on my board than bigs, as every team needs more perimeter players who are multi-positional defenders. Players with plus positional size, skill and high basketball IQs also tend to feature higher for me because those are the guys who end up being sought-after by NBA teams. Also, those are the guys I’d be looking to accumulate given where the NBA is going if I were building a team.
• As mentioned above, I get input and information from NBA executives, college coaches and other evaluators during the process. It’s critical to have conversations with folks around the basketball community to get a well-rounded picture of a player’s future. Sometimes it’s about his background and off-court habits. Sometimes it’s about his work ethic. Other times, it’s just a conversation about whether we think a guy can play. At the end of the day, this is my ranking, and while it is reflective of the general tenor of NBA teams, it’s not necessarily what the consensus would be.

Now, let’s get to some players.

Cam Whitmore | 6-7 wing | Villanova | Rank: No. 5

Whitmore is quickly turning into one of the more polarizing prospects in the 2023 NBA Draft class and is an embodiment of why this class has been a complicated evaluation. On some level, scouts wonder if they’ve actually gotten to see the best of Whitmore this season. He was behind the eight-ball from the jump after breaking his thumb before the season, losing valuable time to get comfortable with Villanova’s defensive structures and offensive scheme. Oftentimes, it looks like the Whitmore possessions for Villanova are a bit separate from the rest of the possessions. Most of Whitmore’s makes are not assisted. He’s often responsible for creating his own looks. Even among his 3-pointers, 47 percent of them are unassisted, which is a very high number for a wing.

But it’s in those moments where Whitmore shows his upside. He’s had more than a few monster dunks this season. There are precious few 6-foot-7, 18-year-old wings with true power and explosiveness athletically who also have the body control to accelerate with a first step, decelerate, then gather their feet and create shots the way he can. This is a sick, NBA-level move from last week against Seton Hall that is unguardable.

Cam Whitmore, that's just ridiculous @NovaMBB x #BIGEASThoops pic.twitter.com/LcrqF62zM5

— BIG EAST MBB (@BIGEASTMBB) March 1, 2023

Featuring in an offense that hasn’t exactly been all that well-rounded in terms of weapons, with below-average point guard play and a new coach in Kyle Neptune, things haven’t been easy for Whitmore. He displays shot-creation ability like this every game in flashes. He averages 12.6 points per game and has a slightly above-average 56.8 true shooting percentage, and those are pretty strong marks given the context around him. The team plays at a snail’s pace, and until Justin Moore recently came back following his Achilles tear, there haven’t been many creators around Whitmore.

It’s everything else, though, that has some scouts a bit tepid on Whitmore’s all-around game. He goes through spurts when he’s invisible, in large part because he hasn’t found a way yet to impact the game beyond scoring consistently. His defense has improved in recent weeks as he’s gained experience — he moves exceedingly well — but it hasn’t been consistently as good as you’d want it to be given his physical tools. More than that, you can count the number of advanced passing reads Whitmore has made this season on one hand. He has just 16 assists in over 600 minutes played, which would be one of the lowest assist rates among any first-round wing in the last decade. His overall feel in ball screens hasn’t been all that great. Mostly, he’s either trying to use his frame and power to barrel his way to the rim, or he’s trying to pull it back out and isolate. He misses a ton of kickouts and can stop the ball a bit too often.

I’ve heard from scouts who still believe Whitmore is the collegiate prospect this year with the highest upside. I’ve also heard from scouts who don’t buy his feel for the game enough as a team defender or passer and think he’s more of a back-half-of-the-lottery pick. I tend to default to the tools and the flashes we’ve seen as a shot creator, which is why I have him at No. 5. With how much more well-spaced the NBA court is, I think his combination of power and explosiveness is going to showcase itself even better in transition and in those wider driving lanes. NBA defenders will have to make longer rotations to cover that ground, and I think Whitmore’s combination of speed and power will be able to beat them to the spot more often at that level. His handle plus ability to gather underneath himself makes him a potentially lethal pull-up threat long term. He’s far from a finished product, and there could be some growing pains, but I’m a believer in Whitmore as a project worth undertaking high in the lottery.

GO DEEPER

Bubble Watch: This is it, North Carolina. No more second chances.

Rayan Rupert | 6-7 wing | New Zealand Breakers | Rank: No. 13

The track record of Next Stars in the Australian NBL actually contributing to winning basketball is extremely small. Guys like Terrance Ferguson, R.J. Hampton and Ousmane Dieng had up-and-down, largely inefficient seasons but still went on to become first-round picks. LaMelo Ball and Josh Giddey were terrific statistically on their way to top-six selections, but their play did not lead to wins as Giddey’s Adelaide team finished seventh in 2021 and Ball’s Illawarra squad finished last in 2020. Other prospects such as Brian Bowen and Mojave King struggled to even really see minutes. Of course, all of this is OK. The goal of the Next Stars program is not necessarily to bring these young players over and ask them to carry their team to the title. The league has a strong, developmentally-focused setup that allows players to grow at their own pace.

This season, the NBL has its first impact Next Star on wins and losses. Rupert has been terrific, particularly over the second half of the season, for a New Zealand team that is currently in the NBL Finals and finished second in the regular season. At 6-foot-7 with a 7-foot-3 wingspan, Rupert has immense defensive upside, and that’s largely where he’s made his impact. He plays about 20 minutes per night for the Breakers, and while the numbers don’t look great, his impact is useful. Rupert only averages 6.2 points per game while shooting 36 percent from the field in a limited sample of shots. And over the last four games, he’s struggled to stay on the floor due to that muted offensive impact. He’s not good enough as a shooter yet, hitting just 24 percent from 3 this season. While he’s smart as a passer and playmaker for his role — he grew up as a point guard — he’s not good enough with the ball for the Breakers to take the ball out of their ballhandlers’ hands and put it into his.

But Rupert shines on defense. He is exceptionally disruptive with his feet and length. He has quick hands to get into an opposing player’s dribble at the point of attack and can pressure ballhandlers 60 feet away from the hoop and gets through screens at a super high level. Beyond that, he’s also tremendous off the ball. He scrambles super well due to his length and the way he sees the court, and his anticipation for what’s happening around him is superb. Below is a great example from an NBL semifinals game against Tasmania. You’re going to see Rupert bump the dive man off the screen from the lead guard and communicate through a potential exchange, recover out to his man, cut off a passing lane, stick with his man on a backdoor cut, track the ball and get a steal to start the run out.

This is complicated stuff for a teenager — especially in high-leverage professional playoff games. On top of all of this, the background intel from sources across the NBL is pristine. Rupert is the kind of player you basically have to lock out of the gym to stop him from overworking himself. He has a very professional demeanor and mindset regarding his career. This is why the Breakers can trust him to play difficult minutes already. Given his elite physical tools and the fact that nothing about his game is broken, he’s a terrific upside bet for teams to take, even if his offensive game might take some time over the next couple of years. I’m definitely a buyer on Rupert.

Jordan Hawkins | 6-5 wing | Connecticut | Rank: No. 15

Hawkins has closed the season about as well as any player in the country. Prior to a strange 3-point dud in a blowout win over DePaul, Hawkins averaged 20 points and 4.6 rebounds while posting a 62.5 true shooting percentage. The key skill here for Hawkins is that ability to generate 3-point shots. He’s taken 7.5 3-pointers per game this season, making them at a 38.4 percent clip. But I think that kind of undersells how elite his potential is as a 3-point gunner. I don’t think there is a better player in this draft class at flying off screens at high speeds in NBA-like sets, catching and shooting.

Look at this guy. It seems so frustrating to have to deal with Hawkins flying off screens and movement all game.

"Catch me if you can" – Jordan Hawkins pic.twitter.com/Er1Ujc8Cg2

— Tyler Rucker (@tyler_rucker) February 23, 2023

One of the hardest things to do as a shooter is to catch the ball with your body turned away from the rim with your momentum going away from it, plant your feet off the hop, go up for the shot wrong-footed then realign your body in mid-air, find your balance and weight transfer into the shot while turning and make the shot all in one motion. That’s a lot! Hawkins does all of this within the same second in this clip. This is a ridiculously impressive shot, and it actually needed to happen all within that single second because one of the best defensive players in the country, Devin Carter, is chasing him. It’s easier to see how insane this is in still form. I captured the moment Hawkins caught it, when he’s still in the air; the moment his feet land, where his left foot is in front of his right; and the moment of release, where Hawkins has turned his body to get his elbow in alignment with the rim.

This is what’s required of elite floor spacers in the NBA. Shooting windows close so fast at that level due to the length and athleticism of the players in the NBA. And that’s why so few players are capable of doing it. The balance, speed and touch required are incredibly difficult to find. Hawkins can do it, and he can do it at 6-foot-5 with a high release point, which makes it even more translatable.

Beyond that, Hawkins has improved as a ballhandler this season and become more capable of attacking heavy closeouts. He’s a better passer than his assist marks make him look. Defensively, he’s aggressive at the point of attack and has real quickness to stay in front of his man. Ultimately, where you land on Hawkins has to do with his frame. His lack of strength currently causes him issues across the board. When he tries to attack a closeout and get downhill, his momentum gets stopped if he gets bumped and recovered against. It’s hard for him to maintain the advantage he gets from his immense shooting gravity. Defensively, it’s a bit too easy to drive through his chest and force him backward — and that will be exacerbated playing in the NBA.

A Hawkins evaluation comes down to believing his frame will improve and he’ll be able to put on more weight as he ages while maintaining the same flexibility and speed that make him such a force off movement as a shooter. I buy into him because how rapidly he is improving as a player.

Dereck Lively II | 7-foot-1 center | Duke | Rank: No. 22

Lively struggled immensely to open the season. He couldn’t stay on the floor due to foul problems, and his offensive game is rudimentary at best. The latter remains true. Lively averages just 5.1 points per game, and it didn’t really get that much better in ACC play, where he only averaged 5.7 points while taking just 3.7 shots per game. He is very limited by his lack of shooting ability and his inability to put the ball on the deck.

But here’s the other thing: On a per minute basis, I don’t think there was a better player defensively in ACC play than Lively. He completely shut down the paint to obscene levels for the Blue Devils. Per Pivot Analysis, when Lively was on the court in ACC play, the team was 8.2 points per 100 possessions better on defense than when he was off the court. They won Lively minutes by nearly 12 points per 100 possessions versus by only 3.3 points when he was off the court. From Jan. 28 onward, Duke won its minutes with Lively by nearly 18 points per 100 possessions, and its possessions with Lively, Kyle Filipowski and Tyrese Proctor by 22 points per 100 possessions. They were dominant in those situations. Particularly, opponents only shot 45.6 percent at the rim with Lively on the court in those situations versus 54.2 percent when he was off the court. In that 11-game stretch in which Duke went 9-2, he also swatted over three shots per game.

I understand giving the ACC Defensive Player of the Year award to Reece Beekman from a consistency perspective. But make no mistake: heading into March Madness, Lively is the elite defensive difference-maker everyone projected him to be when he entered college as a consensus top-five recruit in the country and a likely one-and-done. His offensive game has been so limited that I don’t think he can go in the lottery, but he should end up becoming a first-round pick.

Duke’s Dereck Lively (Rob Kinnan / USA Today)

Other notes

• The Thompson twins swept the OTE playoffs flat, with the City Reapers beating the YNG Dreamerz 3-0. Both Amen and Ausar hit shots the final seconds of separate games to win in the finals. I remain exceedingly high on both long term and think they end up being selected in the top 10. Ausar, particularly, was terrific in all three finals games, averaging 21.3 points and three assists. He has helped himself in the minds of scouts over the last month or so with his terrific play.
• UCF forward Taylor Hendricks is the name I get most from scouts when I ask, “What player will go higher than currently projected?” The appeal of Hendricks is easy. He’s 6-foot-9 with real explosiveness. He’s light on his feet, which gives him some real upside on defense as both a switchable defender and a weakside rim protector. On top of that, he has averaged over 15 points per game as a freshman and hit over 40 percent of his 3s. That’s a very easy pitch to teams constantly on the search for players with positional size and shooting ability. I’ve moved him firmly into lottery range following that advice from scouts.
• As my podcast partner Adam Spinella noted on a recent Game Theory episode, the last time the Pac-12 didn’t have a first-round pick was 1988 (shout out to Steve Kerr, who went 50th that year). This is the first year since 2010 that will put that streak at risk, when Washington’s Quincy Pondexter didn’t hear his name called until 26th overall. My top rated Pac-12 prospect right now is Jaime Jaquez Jr., whom I currently have at No. 29. Beneath him is his teammate at UCLA, Jaylen Clark, at No. 40. The West Coast Conference currently has more top-60 prospects than the Pac-12 on my board.
• Speaking of the WCC, one hot name in draft circles is Santa Clara guard Brandin Podziemski. My colleague John Hollinger is always on the lookout for those non-Los Angeles-based West Coast and Mountain West prospects whom scouts sometimes overlook, and he wrote about him earlier this week. I’m definitely intrigued by Podziemski due to his ability to shoot, but I don’t really buy anything else he brings to the table. Podziemski averaged 19.9 points, 8.8 rebounds and 3.5 assists while shooting 43.6 percent from 3. And he’s strong coming off dribble-handoffs and movement. But he looks to be a bit shorter than his listed 6-foot-5, and he isn’t all that athletic by NBA standards. I think the numbers are a touch inflated because the WCC had the highest offensive efficiency mark of any conference in the country this season, in part because the league’s defenses are not very good outside of Saint Mary’s. In 11 games against Tier A competition, according to KenPom, Podziemski had a meaningful drop in true shooting percentage. And in the six games against just Tier A competition (so the toughest six games he played), Podziemski had a below-average 53.5 true shooting percentage and saw meaningful dips in defensive rebounding rate and assist rate. Much like the rest of the league, I don’t really buy his speed on the defensive end. I see him as an intriguing two-way candidate this year if he were to enter the draft. But I’m just not there with a first round grade at all. The pathway is something in the vicinity of Luke Kennard, and Kennard was a better shooter with shiftier hips and more ball skill.
• One name I expect to pick up steam is Omari Moore out of San Jose State. Moore was the Mountain West Player of the Year, averaging 17.5 points, 4.6 rebounds and 4.7 assists per game while improving his shooting as essentially a 6-foot-6 point guard. Moore is everything for a resurgent Spartans program under Tim Miles, whose 19 wins this season are the school’s most in over 40 years. He’s one of those players who does everything pretty well even if he’s not necessarily elite at anything by NBA standards. He doesn’t take anything off the floor as long as his shooting continues to improve, something NBA teams always look for in role players. His well-rounded game seems tailor-made for a situation like the Miami Heat, who have made a living unearthing and developing these undervalued skill wings.
• There are a couple of other upperclassmen I really like who haven’t gotten a ton of publicity. Marquette 6-foot-9 big Oso Ighodaro is arguably the most versatile screener and dribble-handoff big in all of college basketball. He’s the key to that Marquette offense currently in the top five nationally. I love Tyler Kolek’s passing and playmaking ability, but we saw last season how inefficient his game can look without someone like Ighodaro consistently creating that separation for him with his quick hands and quick feet in those screen/handoff exchanges. Ighodaro’s ability to flip screens and get Kolek into the middle of the floor, in addition to his short-roll passing and playmaking (he averages 3.3 assists per game), is what makes Marquette’s offense go. Marquette assists on about 60 percent of his field goals, which is top 20 in the country. Ighodaro learning to shoot from distance and continuing to improve his ability to defend in space would be enormous for his future. But I love the baseline skills he brings every single night, being involved in almost everything that Marquette runs with Kolek.
• I’m also a little bit surprised Miami guard Isaiah Wong hasn’t started to creep into conversations. The ACC Player of the Year is very shifty with the ball and has drastically improved his shooting, both in terms of shot selection and overall mechanics. He’s averaging 16 points per game on a deep Miami team, but the more important part is that he’s up to 38 percent from 3 while also nearly doubling his assist rate. Given how crafty he is as a separator with the ball in his hands, I’m a believer in Wong having a real shot at the next level to be an offensive creator who can play on or off the ball. He’s a two-way grade for me, but it’s weird he hasn’t gotten much love.
• I want to highlight a few small-school players we’re going to see in the Big Dance. Furman wing Jalen Slawson is a terrific athlete, passer and all-around player at 6-foot-7. He won the SoCon Player of the Year award and took the Paladins to the tournament. He’s a solid two-way grade for me. Drake’s Tucker DeVries isn’t a senior like Slawson and has some time to figure out his game, but much like Hawkins above, he is an elite movement shooter at 6-foot-7. The only issue for DeVries is that he is quite a deficient athlete in terms of explosiveness. He’s sharp and averaged 19 points on his way to the Missouri Valley Player of the Year award. I think he’d be my pick for the mid-major player most likely to carry his team to an upset win. Finally, Drew Pember at UNC Asheville has put on his best Kelly Olynyk impression this season, dominating as an inside-out presence who can fire from 3 and score inside with touch. He was the Big South Player of the Year, and while he’s a bit skinny, there are few more skilled bigs in the country. Look for these three to really fire away and give their teams a shot.

(Top photo of Cam Whitmore: Eric Canha / USA Today)