When it comes to his pending contract negotiations, Filip Gustavsson doesn’t seem too worried.
“I pretty much told my agent to call me when the contract is done,” Gustavsson said. “And I’ll see what it is.”
Hopefully the 24-year-old Swede isn’t waiting by his phone.
After a breakout season, Gustavsson — a restricted free agent with arbitration rights — is due a hefty raise from his expiring $787,500 contract. The new deal is the biggest piece of the Wild’s offseason. But it doesn’t sound like anything is close yet.
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Both sides can agree on that. The question is how much will he get. And who will decide it?
If there’s no progress made, the Wild could eventually take Gustavsson to arbitration and accept an award on a one-year deal.
“We’ll see what the timing is for Gus. There’s no rush,” Guerin said. “We’re going to get it done like this (an extension) or through arbitration. I’m fine with whatever.”
What makes it complicated? Gustavsson is an interesting case. He ranked second in the league in goals-against average and save percentage this season, but he played in less than half of the Wild’s games (39), which was double the total of his career high from the previous season.
So Gustavsson’s season was special, but his track record isn’t very large. And he admitted he was “average” in the playoffs after a historic Game 1 performance in the Wild’s double overtime victory. The Wild want to re-sign him but won’t want to give up too much term as they’ve got prized goalie prospect Jesper Wallstedt seasoning in AHL Iowa. The club has only about $8 million of cap space available, and after Gustavsson, they’ll still need to sign other players like Brandon Duhaime, Mason Shaw and, perhaps, Ryan Reaves.
So why doesn’t either side seem concerned? The key is that the Wild want Gustavsson and the goaltender loves it in Minnesota.
“The good news is we’ve started a dialogue and everything is really positive,” agent Kurt Overhardt told The Athletic on Thursday. “I’m confident, working with Billy and his group, that over time something will get done. I don’t think it’s a matter of getting something done. It’s just a matter of when it’s done. It’s only June 2. So there’s still a lot of time.”
We broke down what Gustavsson’s contract could look like in a story last month. New contracts for goalies coming off a season in which they broke out to take over an 1A role have tended to be midrange recently. It’s a position teams seem to still know less about than others, so how they value it varies. The overall trend is to not invest a huge chunk of the cap in a goalie unless he’s proven over time that he’s a bona fide 1A, as you can see in the chart below. A contract in the three-year, $3 million-plus range fits with the comps and the situation.
The goal for both sides is to get something done sooner than later, but both the player and the team have the option of electing arbitration. A hearing would be set up, with both parties presenting a salary for the upcoming season to a third party who would weigh the evidence presented, like a player’s performance/stats, injury history, length of service, leadership qualities, etc. Arbitration hearings are rare for goalies, and most years teams settle before an actual hearing.
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There are some comparable situations among other goalies who were restricted free agents, most notably Jake Oettinger, who secured a three-year deal at a $4 million average annual value after nearly lifting the Stars past Calgary in the first round a year ago. Alexandar Georgiev and Ville Husso got three-year deals in the same range, though both came after trades. As pointed out in the chart below, all of these goalies except Oettinger have had arbitration rights.
Gustavsson is back in Sweden, and he said the team told him to work on his conditioning so that he could play more games next season. The plan is for Gustavsson to be the No. 1, with Marc-Andre Fleury saying he’s open to being in more of a backup role.
It seems more than likely Gustavsson will get anywhere from a one- to a three-year deal, with the Wild betting this strong season is something that can be repeated. Gustavsson certainly believes it can.
“I think just my style,” Gustavsson said. “I don’t think I’ve changed much. If I played the same way, I wouldn’t say it’s hard for me to play the same way as I’ve been playing this year. So I don’t know why it would change for next year if I play the same way.”
(Photo: David Berding / Getty Images)
