There is risk and there is calculated risk.
Buffalo Sabres general manager Kevyn Adams believes he’s banked on the latter in locking up five young core pieces over the past 14 months.
To recap, the Sabres signed:
• Tage Thompson to a seven-year, $50 million extension on Aug. 30, 2022, a deal that kicked in this season.
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• Mattias Samuelsson to a seven-year, $30 million extension on Oct. 12, 2022, a contract that kicked in this season.
• Dylan Cozens to a seven-year, $49.7 million extension on Feb. 7, 2023, a deal that kicked in this season.
• Rasmus Dahlin to an eight-year, $88 million extension on Monday, a deal that kicks in next season.
• Owen Power to a seven-year, $58.45 million extension on Wednesday, a contract that begins next season.
That’s more than $276 million in all for those five core players.
GO DEEPER
How the salary cap is squeezing teams and forcing players out of NHL jobs
It’s a bet that the salary cap will go up next year and then — obviously, when you’re dolling out seven- and eight-year extensions — just keep going up from there.
Commissioner Gary Bettman said last week that the cap is projected to rise to around $87 million or $88 million, which would indeed be an increase from $83.5 million. I have some reservations about whether the long-term growth will be so aggressive, though — given the Bally regional TV debacle and, even more so, the world economy (but that’s a discussion for another day).
The cap will go up. It’s just a matter of how much when there’s uncertain variance looking ahead five or six years.
In the here and now, I still think the Sabres have probably gambled wisely and ensured some stability as the heart of what they hope is sustainable success as their window opens.
“If you go back, honestly, a couple of years, what I’ve talked a lot about was, we need to be drafting really well, we need to develop our own, and then we need to identify the core pieces that we feel are guys we can build around and then we need to be pro-active and lock guys up long term that we think we can win with,” Adams told me Thursday.
“It has to work both ways. You also have to have buy-in from the players that they truly want to be here and want to be here long-term, and fortunately, we’ve been able to do that now with a number of players. But certainly, you’re projecting your own situation one, three, five years, now as long as nine years out because of Dahlin’s extension. And you never know exactly where the cap will go.
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“You are projecting when you’re building out your model, for sure.”
There are no guarantees. But the danger in doing the opposite, signing too many bridge deals instead with core players and waiting to get a clearer picture of the salary cap year by year, is that you likely end up paying the higher, going rates as the market shifts up.
Again, it’s a calculated risk, taking the long-term approach instead.
So is believing that those core players won’t let long-term financial security change their approach.
“You really want to make sure that these are people that have such a passion that, no matter what, they’re going to get up every day and love coming to the rink,” Adams said. “And you believe they have a chance to continue to get better. That’s a key thing.
“What we’ve also done with the long-term contracts is that we’ve done it with guys who are going into their prime years — years that we believe are their best years and will also allow them to keep growing and getting better. That, for me, is critical in how you build a franchise.”
And finally, it also sends a message.
“A huge message, to our organization, to our city, to the entire hockey world, that you have these players who are obviously highly talented, willing to commit long-term and want to be here,” Adams said. “It’s a big thing for us.”
It’s an exciting time to be a Sabres fan.
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Sabres sign Owen Power to 7-year extension
Brind’Amour extension next?
With the New Jersey Devils’ Lindy Ruff and the Los Angeles Kings’ Todd McLellan getting contract extensions done, Rod Brind’Amour and D.J. Smith are the two remaining NHL coaches working on the last year of their respective contracts.
New Ottawa Senators owner Michael Andlauer has indicated he wants to soak things in before making any rash decisions with his staff, so Smith will have to wait.
As for Brind’Amour, Ryan Rishaug and I asked the Carolina Hurricanes coach and 2021 Jack Adams Award winner about his situation on our Got Yer Back podcast this week.
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“I’d like to get it done if it’s going to get done, just because I don’t want to have the next (media) guy ask me the same question,” he said. “The longer it goes on, everyone goes, ‘What’s going on here?’
“So hopefully we get to it.”
The words might look on the surface like there’s some urgency, but Brind’Amour actually sounded pretty zen about it. One thing he mentioned was that in talking to owner Tom Dundon and team president/GM Don Waddell, they agreed that the priority this summer was on getting some players signed. The point being, he gets that there have been other things to worry about.
“Now we’re at a point where I’m sure I’ll get a call here and we’ll try to work something out,” Brind’Amour said. “But we’ll see.”
Dundon was confident a Brind’Amour extension would happen eventually when I reached out to him about it last month.
“We are going to get it done, for sure,” Dundon said on Sept. 25.
Brind’Amour has said in the past that Carolina is the only place he wants to coach, and I suspect they’ll get something agreed on in the near future. But until it is done, there will be other GMs keeping a close eye on the Hurricanes, hoping they can convince Brind’Amour to leave.
🚨🎙Who had Rod Brind'Amour's back?🎙🚨
All the feels with the #LetsGoCanes head coach and he shares a couple of heartfelt stories with @pierrevlebrun & @tsnryanrishaug
Full pod courtesy @kuma_gear
On all platforms here: https://t.co/pD3BuiNV9H pic.twitter.com/bwYVQwTuEz— GYBPod (@GotYerBackPod) October 11, 2023
Scheifele a new comparable for Lindholm
All remains quiet on the Elias Lindholm contract front. Opening night for the Calgary Flames came and went without an extension for their No. 1 center.
The positive is that the dialogue continues, and I don’t sense any lines being drawn in the sand. But the negative obviously is that going back to the Flames’ contract offer being made a week after the June draft and the Lindholm camp sharing its counter position, there really hasn’t been much movement as far as I can tell.
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No doubt Mark Scheifele’s seven-year extension with the Winnipeg Jets at an $8.5 million average annual value would be a fresh contract comparison that the Flames can point to in talks with Newport Sports. But where it goes from here is hard to determine. Again, both sides are still talking, which is important. But missing the opening-night window to get an extension done is also noteworthy. Getting a deal done with a big-name pending unrestricted free agent tends to get harder once the season starts.
Leafs, Nylander still not close
Speaking of which, it was certainly notable when pending UFA William Nylander informed our Maple Leafs beat writer Jonas Siegel recently that he has instructed his agent, Lewis Gross, to continue talks with the Leafs even after the season starts. Remember that Nylander wasn’t comfortable doing that last time around in 2018.
Everyone involved in the negotiation remains tight-lipped, but all indications are that both sides remain on the same page as far as being highly motivated in hoping to bridge the gap and find a pathway toward an extension. It’s what the player wants. But as far as I can tell, they’re still not close yet on a number.
Whether there’s a breakthrough in a week or a month or it takes until June, I don’t think anyone involved can predict exactly where this is headed.
The risk for both sides now is clear. For Nylander, now that the season has commenced, he risks injury — which would affect his leverage at such an important time contract-wise in his career. For the Leafs, the risk is losing him for nothing on July 1.
But on the latter, I would also say this: People still underestimate the value of found cap space even if losing a quality player. It would be difficult to replace Nylander’s skill and impact but not impossible.
All things being equal, though, both sides hope to get a deal done before that even enters the equation.
(Top photo of Elias Lindholm shooting on Connor Hellebuyck: Derek Leung / Getty Images)
