Even as Russian bombs fell on Ukraine Tuesday, the two countries were resuming their peace talks — but in the third week of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, how do the countries find common ground? And what are the prospects for peace?
Negotiations between countries in active combat may seem extraordinary, but they’re very common “even among the bitterest of enemies,” says Janice Stein, Belzberg professor of conflict management and negotiation at the University of Toronto.
The latest negotiations, held via video conference, were the fourth round involving higher-level officials from the two countries and the first in a week. The talks ended for the day Monday without a breakthrough after several hours, with an aide to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy saying the negotiators took “a technical pause” and planned to meet again Tuesday.
Usually, talks will start with an attempt to create “some safe space for certain kinds of activities,” like evacuating wounded soldiers or civilians, Stein said.
In negotiations, warring states will often reveal where key humanitarian sites like hospitals are, to argue why these areas should not be shelled, she said. (In this case, Russia is the only one shelling civilians, and last week, bombed a maternity hospital in the Ukrainian city of Mariupol, killing a pregnant woman.)
Another point of discussion is a temporary ceasefire to create a humanitarian corridor through which civilians can escape safely — something the Ukrainians have continued to ask for, as food, fuel, medicine, and other supplies dwindle across the country, Stein said.
The Ukrainian government said new aid and evacuation efforts would take place Tuesday along nine corridors around the country, including the Kyiv region. So far, though, three rounds of talks between Russia and Ukraine, held in person in Belarus, have produced no lasting humanitarian routes or agreements to end the fighting.
There were efforts early in March to create a temporary ceasefire around a humanitarian corridor to let civilians flee Mariupol, only to have Ukraine accuse Russia of violating it with shelling within hours.
To put it mildly, Stein said, “It is really disappointing that negotiations on large humanitarian issues, on medical treatment, on hospitals, on evacuation of refugees, that those agreements are being violated by Russia.
“But the negotiations continue because the urgency is so great. So, you keep coming back to the table to try.”
Typically, negotiations are less fruitful in the earlier stages of war but may see more success as fighting drags on, Stein said: One of the earliest signs that a diplomatic solution is on the horizon is when agreements on humanitarian issues are respected.
Over the weekend, both sides expressed cautious optimism about coming to an agreement at the negotiation table.
Russian state media quoted delegate Leonid Slutsky on Sunday saying there had been “significant progress” in negotiations between the two parties and that he expected that progress “may grow into a unified position of both delegations.”
At around the same time, Ukrainian negotiator and presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said in a video posted online that his country is willing to negotiate but not make concessions.
“We will not concede in principle on any positions. Russia now understands this. Russia is already beginning to talk constructively,” he said. “I think that we will achieve some results literally in a matter of days.”
Some are skeptical. Neil MacFarlane, Russian foreign policy specialist and professor at Oxford University, said “incompatible sets of objectives” between the two nations mean negotiations are not likely to be constructive at this point.
For its part, Ukraine is asking for a ceasefire and the withdrawal of Russian forces. Meanwhile, Russia wants a ceasefire, the demilitarization of Ukraine and a guarantee that Ukraine will not join NATO, plus what Moscow sees as “territorial corrections,” MacFarlane said.
Last Monday, Russian spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told Reuters Moscow would stop military operations “in a moment” if Kyiv met its conditions, including acknowledging Crimea as a Russian territory and granting the separatist republics of Donetsk and Lugansk independence.
MacFarlane said the potential for a ceasefire then boils down to “whether both sides are tired enough to just say, ‘OK, we’ll just push the rest of the agenda back a bit and let’s just stop shooting.’”
We’re not there yet, he said. “Clearly, the Russians are perfectly willing to grind Ukraine into dust, and the Ukrainians think they can win through resistance.”
This could change, MacFarlane said, as Russia continues to experience significant casualties and equipment losses.
In an interview with “Fox News Sunday,” U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said the U.S. is putting “enormous pressure” on Russian President Vladimir Putin to agree to a ceasefire and create humanitarian corridors.
“That pressure is beginning to have some effect,” Sherman said.
“We are seeing some signs of a willingness to have real serious negotiations, but I have to say … it appears that Vladimir Putin is intent on destroying Ukraine. We need to help Ukrainians in every way we can.”
The UN has recorded at least 596 civilian deaths since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, though it believes the true toll is much higher. Millions more have fled their homes, with more than 2.8 million crossing into Poland and other neighbouring countries in what the UN has called Europe’s biggest refugee crisis since the Second World War.
“Wars only end two ways,” Stein said. Either one side is defeated, or the parties agree to a diplomatic solution.
“We’re three weeks into this; we’ve had three rounds of these negotiations. There are grounds to hope that it will get better as time goes on.”
With files from The Associated Press
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