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When will the war in Ukraine end? Experts weigh in on possible scenarios

'As long as the Ukrainians have supplies and the Russians don’t give up, it could be a sort of stalemate... This will mean that there will be a horrendous cost for Ukrainian civilians'

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As the war in Ukraine enters its second week, questions of when, and how, the conflict will end are doubtless on the minds of people around the world.

There are many scenarios that could play out. Russian President Vladimir Putin could be ousted. Ukraine and Russia could come to a negotiated end of hostilities. Or, the war could drag on in a protracted fashion.

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The National Post spoke to experts and ran several scenarios by them to get their opinion on how this war could end.

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What would bring the war to an end quickly?

A couple different scenarios could bring this war to an end sooner rather than later.

Andres Kasekamp, a professor at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs, said the war will be short if Putin follows through on his implied threat of using nuclear weapons.

“The Russians have sort of paradoxically referred to this as a sort of de-escalation — using the threat of nuclear weapons to demonstrate that they’re willing to use it. If they do, then they will completely frighten off anyone who would ever support Ukraine and bring the conflict to an end,” Kasekamp said.

There’s also the possibility of a negotiated peace that comes expeditiously.

“There have to be negotiations regarding de-escalation before we even talk about a permanent resolution to this conflict,” said Dani Belo, assistant professor of international relations at Webster University in St. Louis, Missouri and a fellow at Carleton University’s Norman Paterson School of International Affairs. “We’ve seen a number of these meetings between the Russian delegation and Ukraine’s delegation.”

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While these meetings, as yet, haven’t brought about a de-escalation of the conflict, Belo did note there has been some progress, such as an agreement to create humanitarian corridors for civilians to escape the fighting.

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What might a negotiated end of the war look like?

If the war were to end diplomatically, experts tend to agree that the negotiated solution would have to allow Putin to appear like he has had some success.

It is unlikely that Russia will compromise on the red lines they have articulated, said Belo. The main one is the demilitarization of Ukraine and the prevention of it becoming a hub for NATO forces.

Jeff Sahadeo, a professor at the Institute of European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies at Carleton University, said there are a couple areas that could be up for negotiation and compromise.

One might be Russia being OK with Ukraine joining the European Union, so long as they don’t seek to join NATO. Another might be that Ukraine has to accept the loss of territory in Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea, which they have not done.

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“There are ways that it could be done, but they both have to compromise more than they would appear to want to right now,” said Sahadeo.

What about if it were to stretch on and become a long war?  

This may be the most likely option.

Putin’s underestimation of the Ukrainian government and people has cost him the easy victory he had hoped for, said Kasekamp.

“Putin believed that with a little push the government in Kyiv would crumble, but instead people rallied around their leaders in the face of foreign invasion. Now, he is bringing in additional forces that they didn’t use in the beginning which means there is going to be much more devastating shelling of civilians,” he said. “There are also talks of Russia introducing martial law, allowing them to mobilize more resources, which suggests that they’re determined to continue this for a longer period.”

It is surprising how poorly the Russian military has performed, said Sahadeo. But even so, they do have the capability to occupy Ukraine which would extend the length of the war.

“The question is, how do they hold it,” he said. “Now that NATO countries and the European Union have committed to providing Ukrainians with weapons, they could mount a guerilla war that could stretch on until, eventually, the Russian regime realizes that the costs are too high.”

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Could this become a war that engulfs the rest of Europe, the West, and eventually the world?  

There are a few scenarios that could send other countries into military operations in Ukraine. The use of nuclear weapons could be the first, although experts agree it is unlikely.

But, Belo said, there could be a non-nuclear confrontation between Russia and NATO forces.

“Some sort of provocation by NATO, like a no-fly zone or a decision to conduct an air operation in Ukraine, that says ‘we’re coming close to Russia’s air force, therefore, Russia should move its forces away’ could escalate to a confrontation,” he said.

While a no-fly zone has been discussed, it would mean shooting down Russian planes that enter Ukrainian air space, a step that could quickly lead to war, and something that NATO country leaders are keen to avoid.

Belo also said that if Russian troops were to attack NATO troops on the ground — say foreign soldiers escorting a convoy of aid to Ukraine — it would trigger Article 5 of the Washington Treaty, which established NATO.

This clause states that if one member of NATO is attacked, then all members are attacked. He said this would be a direct escalation path.

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While unlikely, Sahadeo also said there is a chance that Putin finally decides that the combination of sanctions and NATO arming the Ukrainian resistance becomes too much for him and he attempts to provoke a war with NATO. Russia could initiate a conflict at the Ukrainian border with a NATO country and claim it as a provocation. This would then engage the NATO countries in conflict.

Is there a chance that Putin could be ousted?  

While this option might seem like the best-case scenario, experts say although there has been some resistance against Putin by Russian citizens, it is unlikely that he will be toppled anytime soon.

Kasekamp said that Russians have been demonstrating in the streets since the start of the war, and the crackdown on dissent suggests the Russian leadership are concerned about this, it’s unlikely that these street protests could bring Putin down.

“I think that it’s usually more common that rather than protests in the street toppling autocrats, that it’s someone in the inner circle who see that the boss has gone mad and is dragging us all down with him, but that’s kind of hard to see at the moment,” Kasekamp said.

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Still, Belo said Putin has built a solid team around him and holds a strong balance of power within his government. It would be unlikely that any of his agencies could mount a regime change.

“They would not just be battling Putin or coming to the Kremlin and taking him,” said Belo. “The regime change is appealing from an ethical perspective, but in terms of practicality it doesn’t seem to be the case.”

While there is no telling just exactly how the war will end in Ukraine, experts tend to agree the most likely scenario will be a drawn-out conflict that ends in some form of negotiation.

“As long as the Ukrainians have supplies and the Russians don’t give up, it could be a sort of stalemate for a while,” said Kasekamp. “This will mean that there will be a horrendous cost for Ukrainian civilians.”

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