Will Blue Jackets end Gavrikov's time in Columbus with a trade?
Brian Hedger
At this point, it seems like a foregone conclusion.
Lacking a contract extension, the Blue Jackets appear poised to spin off popular defenseman Vladislav Gavrikov before the NHL’s March 3 trade deadline rather than keeping a player they drafted, waited patiently to get from the Kontinental Hockey League and developed into a sturdy blue line stopper.
It’s a scenario the Blue Jackets have gone through before, so it shouldn’t be too surprising given the prior exits of Ryan Johansen, Josh Anderson and Pierre-Luc Dubois. All had contractual issues that ended with trades and Gavrikov, 27, is skating down the same path.
“That’s part of the game, right?” he said when asked about the possibility of being traded. “It’s part of the business, so I’m ready for anything. You’ve got to stay a pro, right? And you’ve got to take what’s in front of you. … I have to not think about it so much. I’m just focused on my game and the team, so that’s it. There’s nothing I can change right now.”
How did the Blue Jackets and Gavrikov get to this point?
The biggest issue is contractual and not a desire by Gavrikov to play in a different market, as it was with Gavrikov's friend and former Blue Jackets forward Artemi Panarin, who left a massive contract offer from Columbus on the table to sign with the New York Rangers in 2019.
Gavrikov and his wife, Anastasia, enjoy living in Columbus, and the husky defenseman would like to continue playing for the Blue Jackets.
“I’ve said it so many times now,” Gavrikov said. “There are a lot of good things in my mind about the city and everything. I’ve talked a lot about it, so I don’t want to repeat myself.”
Gavrikov’s agent, Dan Milstein, and Blue Jackets general manager Jarmo Kekalainen have a good relationship and neither says much publicly about negotiations. The two are currently at a standstill, however, after discussions last summer about an extension ended without an agreement.
Gavrikov, a pending unrestricted free agent, holds the negotiating leverage.
He’s just entering his NHL prime with 237 games to his credit and has proven himself as a strong defender with size, strength and underrated offensive skill. Gavrikov is also holding his own while playing top-pair minutes in the absence of Zach Werenski (shoulder surgery).
It’s believed the Blue Jackets don’t want to commit to Gavrikov’s demands for salary and term, which likely exceeds $5 million annually for a long-term contract. The team’s ownership may also be a factor if there’s a hesitancy to add another costly expense after spending to the NHL’s salary cap of $82.5 million to sign star forward Johnny Gaudreau, defenseman Erik Gudbranson and re-sign Patrik Laine.
Despite committing $22.45 million in those deals, which juiced season-ticket sales, the Blue Jackets got off to a dreadful 3-9-0 start and continue to spiral downward amid a slew of injuries.
Kekalainen declined to discuss the situation, but issued a text message statement: “We have the utmost respect for Vladi the player and Vladi the person/teammate, and have made that very clear to him.”
The case for the Blue Jackets trading Gavrikov
One of Kekalainen’s strengths as a GM is getting good value when dealing players headed to the UFA market.
The Blue Jackets, for instance, moved pending UFAs David Savard and Nick Foligno at the 2021 deadline for a total return of four picks (two first-round selections) split between the 2021 and 2022 drafts.
Savard, an older defenseman similar to Gavrikov, went to the Tampa Bay Lightning and won the Stanley Cup for a first-round pick in 2021 and third-round pick in 2022.
The first-rounder was included with Seth Jones in a pre-draft trade with the Chicago Blackhawks that turned into defensemen Adam Boqvist, Jake Bean and center Cole Sillinger for the Blue Jackets, while the third-round pick was used to select undersized scoring phenom Jordan Dumais in July ― the leading scorer in the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League.
The Foligno trade netted a first-round pick in 2021 used to select collegiate defenseman Corson Ceulemans 25th overall and the fourth-round pick in 2022 was flipped to the Nashville Predators in July to get forward Mathieu Olivier.
Assuming Gavrikov stays healthy, a similar return may be possible, especially as the deadline nears. His salary-cap hit of $2.8 million, prorated for the remainder of the season, shouldn’t be an issue for a number of contending teams that also possess the type of draft picks the Blue Jackets will likely seek in return.
The question is whether it’s worth it for a team already struggling defensively to subtract one of its few remaining defensemen with solid NHL experience.
The case for the Blue Jackets re-signing Gavrikov
How many times can the Blue Jackets do this with homegrown players and realistically expect to rejoin the NHL’s competitive ranks?
They unearthed Gavrikov in the sixth round of the 2016 draft, waited for him to develop while he matured in the KHL and sculpted him into a viable top-four NHL defenseman upon arrival. He’ll soon near the threshold of 300 games, which many in hockey consider the minimum number that defensemen need to become dependable NHL rearguards, and Gavrikov is already one of the Jackets’ most reliable.
The only Columbus defensemen with more NHL experience than Gavrikov are Werenski and Gudbranson, which means that trading Gavrikov will make the Jackets even greener on the blue line.
That’s not how contending teams are constructed and isn’t a great message conveyed to a large number of young NHL players and prospects who will go through their own negotiations in the years ahead – forwards, defensemen and goalies alike.
Gavrikov is also beloved by teammates, coaches and fans, which makes his situation as an unsigned pending UFA baffling. Even if the price is higher per year or longer in term than what the Blue Jackets prefer, extending Gavrikov is a decision that would likely pay for itself in the defensive stability it would provide.
Whether that comes to fruition will be determined in the next couple of months.
“I don’t want to talk much about the situation, to be honest,” said Gavrikov, who isn't thrilled about his unsigned status. “It’s been a lot of (stuff), I would say, that’s gone on since summer and right now I’ve just stepped away from it. I’m just focusing on the game and what’s going to happen with the team.”