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Incidence rates are increasing in provinces west of the Atlantic region
BC AB SK
Number of cases per 100 000 population
MB ON QC
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Rt in Canada is trending above 1 nationally and in heavily impacted areas
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COVID-19 activity continues to be uneven across the country
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Incidence has remained highest among young adults since late June
80+ years
Number of cases per
100 000 population
20 to 39 years
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Rapid detection and response to outbreaks is key to controlling the rate and
extent of COVID-19 spread
200
100
0
March April May June July August September
Data sources: Provincial/territorial websites and public information sources
*Note school outbreaks include only those with at least two cases.
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Hospitalizations lag behind increases in reported cases but show early signs of
increase
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COVID-19-related deaths remain low
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Data driven models forecast short-term epidemic trajectory
Number of cases Number of deaths
Extrapolation based on recent trends using a forecasting model (with ranges of uncertainty)
When the cases and deaths reported are between the red and green dotted lines, they are within the forecasted range of expected
cases and deaths.
More importantly, if reported data points since September 17 fall outside these limits, the model detects unexpected signals that
require further epidemiologic investigation.
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Public health authorities can’t do this alone; the actions of individual
Canadians are key to keeping COVID-19 to manageable levels
cases
Daily number of new cases
people
cases
per 100 000 people
new
people
new
100 000
number of of
‘slow burn’
per 100,00
Daily number
per
Daily
Minimal control Enhanced case detection Case detection + contact tracing +
+ contact tracing individual actions
To keep COVID-19 transmission at low levels or a ‘slow burn’ we need both:
Public health authorities Individual Canadians
• detect cases and trace contacts • wash hands frequently
• monitor case/contact isolation and quarantine • maintain physical distance
• manage risk of importation • wear a mask when distancing is difficult
• detect and respond to outbreaks • stay home if experiencing any symptoms, even if mild
Ng V, Fazil A, Waddell LA, Bancej C, Turgeon P, Otten A, Atchessi N, Ogden NH. 2020. Projected effects of nonpharmaceutical public health interventions to
prevent resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Canada. CMAJ. 192(37):E1053-E1064. https://www.cmaj.ca/content/192/37/E1053.long
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Long range forecast - Canada is at a crossroads and individual action to
reduce contact rates will decide our path
increase
epidemic is forecast to
resurge faster and stronger:
Orange line
decrease
• If we decrease our current
March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. rate of contacts – the
epidemic is forecast to come
under control in most
Methods: Anderson SC, Edwards AM, Yerlanov M, Mulberry N, Stockdale J, Iyaniwura SA, Falcao RC, Otterstatter
locations: Blue line
MC, Irvine MA, Janjua NZ, Coombs D, Colijn C. 2020. Estimating the impact of COVID-19 control measures using a
Bayesian model of physical distancing. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.20070086v1
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Experience of other countries shows resurgence can exceed the initial wave
Daily COVID-19 cases per 100 000 population
(7-day moving average)
7-day moving average of daily cases
per 100 000 population
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Fall/winter with COVID-19 means being more vigilant of risks and precautions
Read more in “COVID-19 information and resources: reducing your risks for infection and spreading the virus”, available online at:
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/news/2020/07/information-and-resources-on-covid-19-epidemiology-and-reducing-your-risks-for-infection-and-spreading-the-virus.html
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