BCCDC Weekly Data

Summary
30 April 2021

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Table of Contents
Overall Weekly Summary ……….………………………………………………………………………………………………………………3

Surveillance …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..4

BC Epidemiology………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….…..4

Labs/Genomics…………………………………………………………………………………………….………………………..22

BC in Canadian and Global Context……………………..………………………….……………………………………...34

Modeling……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..………..42

Additional Resources………………….……..………………………………………………………………………………………………….48

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 Overall Weekly Summary
• Case rates remain elevated across BC, but are continuing to decline in each HA; test positivity is
stable at 11% for publicly funded tests.
• New hospitalizations continue to be elevated, but early signs of slowing; hospital/ critical care
census are increasing in FH, VCH, IH; new deaths are stable and low.
• Majority of hospitalizations among individuals aged >40 years
• Majority of deaths in individuals aged >80 years

• The share of VOCs among screened cases in BC is ~78% in epi week 16. VOCs have been
detected in all regions of the province. Among sequenced samples provincially based on
information for epi week 15, P.1 (~40%) and B.1.1.7 (~60%) remain two dominant VOCs.
• Alberta’s case rate is currently the highest in Canada and at similar levels to the Dec peak.
Potential for importation into BC.
• As of April 29, >39% of adult population in BC has been vaccinated; > 80% of those over 70 years
have been vaccinated.
• Vaccine coverage varies regionally
• The number of outbreaks in LTCFs remains very low.

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 Apr 24 to Apr 30: BC COVID-19 Profile
129,482 total cases 1,581 total deaths
5,724 new this week 27 new this week

6,669 ever hospitalized 119,785 removed from isolation

388 new this week 6,646 new this week

*Data based on surveillance date (i.e. lab result date, or when not available, date reported to public health) 4
Case rates are elevated across BC, but continuing to decline in each HA; new hospitalizations
continue to be elevated, but stabilizing; new deaths are stable and low.

Data are by surveillance date for cases and deaths, DRAFT Data to April 30
and admission date for hospitalizations
New hospitalizations are elevated and stable, primarily among 40-79 years.
The number of hospitalizations among <40 years remain relatively low. Deaths
decreasing and mostly in individuals ≥80 years.

Data incomplete

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Hospital and critical care census continues to increase in BC, driven by FH, VCH
and IH.

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Incidence is elevated in BC, but decreasing (FH, VCH, NH) or stable (IH). Percent positivity
remains >10% in FH, VCH and NH.

12.6%
10.1%

3.5%

10.3%
12.4%

3.3%

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The majority of cases continue to be related to local acquisition through a
known case or cluster

Likely source of COVID-19 infection by

episode date, BC January 15,2020 (week3) to April 17, 2021 (week15)

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Vaccination progress in BC by age group up to 29 April 2021

Vaccinations

Hospitalizations

Deaths

Hospitalizations by admission date, deaths by report date 15

Data sources: hospitalizations and deaths – BCCDC, vaccinations – DARE, PHSA
Vaccination progress in BC by HSDA up to 29 April 2021

Each bar = 100% of

population in a given HSDA

Already eligible or soon to Not eligible yet for Vaccinated priority populations
be eligible for mRNA mRNA vaccine, age- (HCWs, CEVs, outbreaks, etc.) and
vaccine, age-based rollout based rollout AstraZeneca recipients
Hospitalizations by admission date, deaths by report date 16
Data sources: hospitalizations and deaths – BCCDC, vaccinations – HSIAR
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The number of cases among individuals aged ≥70 years and HCWs working in long-term care or
assisted living facilities is very low following vaccination roll-out compared with individuals not
living or working in these settings.

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The number of new outbreaks declared remains low, but a handful of new outbreaks declared in
acute care and long-term care facilities this week.

Note that the two graphs cover

different time periods

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 Lab - Key Messages
1. Percent positivity among publicly funded tests remains elevated for the last epi week (11%)
• Testing rates have decreased over the past two weeks (~70,000 total tests April 18 to 24)
2. There are regional differences in percent positivity, which range from 3.3% in VIHA to 12.6% in
FH.
3. Incidence and positivity are elevated and declining in individuals aged 5 to 65 years. Incidence
is increasing slowly in children 0-4 years is increasing, and is low and stable in individuals >65
years.
4. The provincial weekly median turnaround time (time from specimen collection to lab result) is
17 hours, indicating good testing capacity; only 1 in 4 tests took ≥24 hours to result.
5. Among SARS-COV-2 screened samples, the proportion that were presumptive VOCs for the
past epi week 16 was ~78%.
6. VOCs have been detected in all regions of the province.
• Among sequenced samples provincially based on information for epi week 15, P.1 and B.1.1.7
remain two dominant VOCs, accounting for roughly 40% and 60% of VOCs respectively.

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 Weekly Summary of ALL lab tests performed
2,463,067 total specimens tested
10% relative to last week
69,708 new this epi week

132,455 total positive specimens 9.0% positivity

0.4% absolute change from
6,272 new positive this epi week last week
17 hr mean turnaround time (TAT)
14% TAT relative to last
17 [11-24] Median [Q1 – Q3] TAT week
Weekly Summary of Lab tests paid Publicly
2,030,054 total specimens tested
12% relative to last week
56,753 new this epi week
131,174 total positive specimens 11.0% positivity 23
0.2% absolute change from
6,131 new positive this epi week
last week
Data source: PLOVER extract at 10:30am on April 29, 2021.
Epi week 16 (April 18 – 24)
Percent positivity among publicly funded tests remains stable compared to the
previous epi week and continues to be elevated (11%). The total number of
tests resulted has decreased relative to the previous epi week.

Data source: PLOVER extract at 10:30am on April 29, 2021. Epi week 16 (April 18 – 24) 26
Incidence and positivity are elevated and declining in individuals aged 5 to 65 years. Incidence
in children 0-4 years continues to increase slowly, and is low and stable in individuals >65
years.

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Incidence remains elevated, but is stable or decreasing across regions;
positivity is >10% in health service delivery areas in FH, VCH and NH

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Of all COVID-19 positive test samples in epi week 16 (Apr 18-25) in BC, ~78% were
presumptive VOCs. Note that in Northern, the proportion was substantially lower, ~34%.

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• The proportion of variants sequenced can be interpreted at the population level, given that it includes only samples sequenced
from background surveillance and random screening.
• Weeks 13 onward include specimens from qPCR SNP screening that resulted as presumptive positive for B.1.1.7 and P.1.

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• This shows the relative proportion of variants over time. B.1.117 was the most predominant variant in the last two epi
weeks, with P.1 being the second most predominant.
• Weeks 13 onward include specimens from qPCR SNP screening that resulted as presumptive positive for B.1.1.7 and P.1.

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 Overview of the Blue arrows highlight
most common COVID-19
VOC: Variant of concern
VOI: Variant of interest
screening and current pathway Positive test
n=600 per week
sequencing
process applied % screened samples that are
presumptive VOC changes
to positive VOC every week; this is what’s Cluster, outbreaks,
Baseline surveillance
Screening (random sample)
COVID-19 tests reported as estimated % VOC
prevalence in BC
hospitalized patients,
re-infections, vaccine
in BC, April 2021 escape, travellers,
and other targeted
Presumptive surveillance
Non-VOCs
VOCs
10-20%
Not all samples from
these groups are VOCs
Presumptive Presumptive Emerging
B.1.1.7 P.1/B.1.351 VOI

Not all presumptive

VOCs are sequenced >25% 100%
5-10%
Sequencing Non-VOC

Please note the differences in turnaround Estimate of

Confirmed Confirmed Confirmed
time for screening and sequencing: screening
B.1.1.7 VOI
prevalence B.1.1.7 P.1 B.1.351
results usually come back within 1-2 days,
while sequencing results come back after
Prevalence estimates of specific VOCs
approximately one week, but it could also are based on samples from baseline Estimate of P.1 Estimate of B.1.351
take longer if there are lab backlogs. surveillance and screening prevalence prevalence

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 BC in Canadian and Global Context - Key Messages
1. Globally, growth in cases in South America, Europe, and North America have declined while it
has increased in parts of Asia, driven by recent resurgence in India.
2. Across Canada, cases are trending up in AB and MB. BC, ON, QC and SK have turned the corner.
Death rates are trending up in ON; stable in other jurisdictions, overall very low. Hospital census
increasing in AB; recent stabilization observed in BC, MB, ON, QC, and SK.
3. Alberta’s case rate is currently the highest in Canada and at similar levels to the Dec peak.
Potential for importation into BC.
4. VOCs are now dominant in ON; BC is expected to follow suit by early May.
5. Canadian vaccination update: >50% population vaccinated in the YK and NWT; QC ~35%;
BC ~31%; Canada overall ~32%.
6. Global vaccination update: % population that has been vaccinated with at least one dose: Israel
~62%, UK ~50%, US ~43%, Chile ~42%, Europe 20-30%.

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Globally, growth in cases in South America, Europe, and North America have declined
while it has increased in parts of Asia, driven by recent resurgence in India

Source Source 35
Across Canada, cases are trending up in AB and MB. BC, ON, QC and SK have turned the
corner. Death rates are trending up in ON; stable in other jurisdictions, overall very low.

DRAFT Data to 27 April

Alberta’s case rate is currently the
highest in Canada and at similar
levels to the Dec peak. Potential
for importation into BC.

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Hospital census increasing in AB; recent stabilization observed in BC, MB, ON, QC, and SK

Data to 27 April 38
 VOCs are now dominant in ON; BC is expected to follow suit by early May

Gray lines = European countries for

which data are available. Their
trajectories have consistently shown
that it takes ~2 months for B.1.1.7
to become a dominant strain,
regardless if COVID cases were
stable or increasing.

NB: Across the EU, B.1.1.7 is the predominant

VOC by far; B.1.351 also contributes to a small
proportion of cases, depending on the country
(0.1-5%); P.1. is rare

Please note that these are approximate estimates only and may not be accurate. Data across jurisdictions are not directly comparable due to different sampling methodologies. There were likely
changes in methodology over time within the same jurisdiction, especially during the early part of the curve. Some data points were extrapolated/approximated to complete the visualization.

DRAFT - NOT FOR FURTHER DISTRIBUTION 39

Canadian vaccination update, 29 April: >50% population vaccinated in the YK
and NWT; QC ~35%; BC ~31%; Canada overall ~32%.

Source 40
Global vaccination update, April 28

Jurisdictions are aligned at day

0 when % population
vaccinated reached 5% Israel
Canada is in the top 10
most vaccinated
countries worldwide
UK

Hungary
Chile US

Canada
Finland
Serbia
Germany
Norway
Note the differences in Denmark
the speed of vaccine
rollout between
countries that have
delayed administration
of second dose have vs
those that haven’t

Source

Source 41
Dynamic compartmental modeling: recent trends
Our model shows that Rt is below 1 in all regions of BC. Whenever Rt > 1, there is a risk that
the number of new cases will grow.

BC (0.97 → 0.86) Fraser (1.08 → 0.92) Vancouver (0.78 → 0.69)

Coastal

Interior (0.98 ≈ 0.93) Vancouver (0.73 ≈ 0.68) Northern (0.84 → 0.74)

Island

Solid black line: median Rt , data up to Apr 28, 2021; Grey band: 5%-95% credible interval; Purple bars: all reported cases. Due to lag from
symptom onset to reporting, most recent cases are not shown. Recent trend shown comparing 7 day average Rt from (last week → this week).
Scenarios of trajectory in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in BC based on
infectious contact

Fitting period: March 1, 2020 – April 25, 2021 43

Scenarios of trajectories in cases based on infectious contact, by HA

Case Report Date

Fitting period: March 1, 2020 – April 25, 2021 44

Scenarios of trajectories in hospitalizations incidence based on infectious
contact, by HA

Case Report Date

Fitting period: March 1, 2020 – April 25, 2021 45

Rt modelling methods
• A dynamic compartmental model was fit to COVID-19 data for BC using a Bayesian
framework (Anderson et al. 2020. PLoS Comp. Biol. 16(12): e1008274)
• Results are presented as provincial and regional time-varying estimates of average daily
transmission rate (Rt)
• The following caveats apply to these results
• the model does not consider importation of cases, hence all transmission is assumed to arise from
local cases
• the model does not distinguish cases arising from variants of concern (VoCs) versus ‘wild-type’
COVID-19, hence model estimates represent average rates of transmission

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Model notes and assumptions
• Levels of infectious contact characterized by historic estimated rates:
• 40% would be similar to what was observed after the 8th September, 2020 announcement
• 50% would be similar to changes observed after 7th November 2020 announcement
• 60% would be similar rate of contact observed at beginning of 2021.
• Current BC Vaccination schedule incorporated into model fitting and projections incorporating
variable rates of contact and susceptibility by age. Note vaccination of higher contact workers not
explicitly included, which may under-estimate total impact of vaccination.
• Vaccination was modeled using the current proposed one dose schedule by age group, with all
eligible age groups vaccinated by end of June, adjusting for age-dependent impact on
transmission. Further assumed a 15% hesitancy of all age groups.
• Establishment of VoC varied by region and estimated from sequencing of cases. Estimates used
were: Fraser: 20th January, Vancouver Coastal: 7th February, Interior: 15th March, and 25th March
Vancouver Island and Northern.
• Dominance of VoC assumed to be 7 weeks in line with other jurisdictions. 50% increased
transmission and disease severity selected to reflect experienced changes in other jurisdictions.

DRAFT - NOT FOR FURTHER DISTRIBUTION 47

 Additional Resources
• *NEW* BCCDC COVID-19 Epidemiology app (public) has been updated with provincial and
international vaccination data.

• *NEW* CHSA Case/Vaccine Dashboard - Internal HA use only – needs a Tableau license. If you
would like access, please contact rose.jose@bccdc.ca

• LHA Trends Dashboard – Internal HA use only – needs a Tableau license. If you would like access,
please contact rose.jose@bccdc.ca

• More BC COVID-19 data, including the latest Situation Report, maps, and BC COVID-19 public
dashboard, can be found here (public)

• COVID SPEAK Survey results (public)

• PHAC’s COVID-19 Epidemiology update can be found here (public)

• For the most up to date BC, Canadian and global mobility data and to compare jurisdictions of
interest to you, please visit BCCDC Mobility app (note: not for public release)