Methods for Estimating Latent Demand for Active Transportation

Dear Sir/Madam:

The TAC Transportation Planning and Research Standing Committee is undertaking the project: Methods for Estimating Latent Demand for Active Transportation. As part of the project, this short survey is being conducted among transportation jurisdictions and practitioners regarding their experience on this topic. Below is information about the project.

You are receiving this request as a transportation practitioner. The four survey questions are on the next page. It would be appreciated if you can respond to the survey by November 22, 2019. Thank you.

Sincerely,

Ronauq Sabharwal

Project need: Estimating active transportation demand is a key requirement for planning and design of transportation facilities, particularly with respect to the potential uptake or ridership along a particularly corridor or network. It aims to determine how much usage a new facility would generate. This is a challenging process as:

- Trips made by active modes are not usually recorded/collected at the same level of detail as motorized trips.

- Trips involving walking and cycling for part of a trip (i.e. walk or cycle to the bus/train station to take transit, or walk/cycle to a carpool pick-up) are often counted only as a transit or driving trip

- The number of existing trips by active modes do not reflect the possibility of attracting new travelers who chose an alternative mode due to the lack of active transportation facilities, safety concerns or other contextual factors.

- Public transport is not typically defined as active transportation; however, the facilities available in the “first/last mile” may influence people’s decision to take public transportation.

- Traditional four-stage travel demand models often exclude, or use rudimentary processes to estimate active modes and sensitivities to different variables

Developing improved methods to quantify the latent demand for active transportation travel would serve to inform the planning and prioritization of potential active transportation facilities as well as the types of facilities best able to influence mode shifts under different conditions.

The objectives of this project are to:

- Identify existing research and develop an understanding of various methodologies to estimate latent demand for active transportation and their benefits and dis-benefits;
- Identify additional research needed; and
- Provide a summary of methods in a short report.

The focus of this project is to quantify “latent demand” - the demand that may exist if certain interventions were made (i.e. addition of a bike path, completion of a sidewalk gap). 

In terms of modes, the project will consider all modes of active transportation (walking, cycling, rolling and wheeling).  However, part of the focus will be to determine if there is a need to develop different methods for walking vs. cycling. 

Question Title

* 1. Does your organization estimate latent demand for future active transportation facilities? (Yes/No). If yes...

Question Title

* 2. Please identify below and provide (to ronauq.sabharwal@cima.ca) any case studies or papers that your organization has implemented. We request any documents you may have that outline the method(s) to estimate latent demand for active transportation.

Question Title

* 3. Has your organization conducted any before and after studies of corridors or networks to review the impacts of active transportation improvements or other changes in operating conditions? Please describe the results of these studies, and any lessons learned with respect to estimated / actual demand.

Question Title

* 4. Are you aware of other organizations which may have implemented and/or documented the method(s) to estimate latent demand for active transportation?

Question Title

* 5. Is there someone in your organization who is willing to answer further questions on this topic? If so, please provide their contact.

T